Warwick 3:35

Safran De Cotte sticks out here as a horse with a bit of potential who will like the ground here. We have to ignore his last poor run but I’m hopeful that if he can get back to his form of last year he is of a decent mark here and carrying less than 10stone here will be a very decent advantage in this slog of a race. The 3lbs claimer on today has plenty of success on the horse and 18/1 looks decent value.

1 Point win 18/1 Betfair/Stan James/Coral

Kempton 4:40

River Maigue looks to me as if he will really appreciate the step up in trip here and the soft ground. He has some top class novice form and although he was a disappointment on his reappearance at Sandown in what was probably too quick a race, he should be well suited to this. He really looks a stayer and has a couple of good runs on soft ground. 6/1 is shorted than my usual type but I’m going with my gut here.

1 Point win 6/1 Generally

Catterick 2:35

My 80/1 shot Wellforth that was so close is running again tomorrow of the same mark in what looks a lower class race. There is an extra 2 furlongs to help him here and he has in the past run quickly after a decent race and run well. In this race he looks more of a 6/1 shot and with his proven conditions 10/1 is a bargain.

1 Point win 10/1 Stanjames

Lingfield 2:35

Shocking days racing, but I’m going to go with a horse I’ve followed a few times in Kiama Bay . The recent jockey change to a 7lbs claimer can only help. This looks a competitive race that most of the field have a shot in. 20/1 looks a few points to big and I’ll go with a min bet. He is avery capable on his day and has some AW form.

½ Point win 20/1 Various

Lingfield 3:10

Elusivity looks overpriced here at 20/1, he has some form a long time ago on AW and has runa number of very good races this year. 94 could be a great mark for him and he is worth of as min bet also.

½ Point Win 20/1 Various

12:45 Cheltenham

Our Island looks to have been given a decent chance here by the handicapper. He has some decent runs around here and should really stand chance here of his lowest mark ever.  The 10/06 he has to carry tomorrow will be a big advantage at the end of this race given the softer than normal ground around here. I got a small bet on at 33/1 with Coral earlier but that is gone and I’d be happy enough with the 25/1 available in a couple of places.

1 Point EW 25/1 Sky/tote/fred

Musselburgh 2:10

Local Hero seems to my mind to have been dropped a bit too much for some reasonable runs over the last year. He is 4lbs below his last winning mark and has run well on a few occasions since including a very good 3^rd to Barizan in the Swinton.. He is worthy of a win bet as if he is back to form after his break, he can win this once the ground doesn’t get any softer. The 20/1 with bet365 looks value.

1 Point win 20/1 Bet365..

I’m also going for Bygones Of Brid here at a huge looking price. He has some very decent form this year, particularly a good 2^nd in Aintree in a decent class 2 hurdle, after encountering some trouble near the finish. He ticks a few boxes here In that he is back to his preferred trip of 2 miles, after a couple of runs over longer and has a 7lbs claimer on today for the first time in his career. My gut feeling is that he may well try to make this from the start and could well be difficult to catch with only 10:05 on his back. Hopefully this claimer can judge pace.. 33/1 looks well worth an EW bet here as in my mind he is around 16/1 – 20/1.

1.5 pts EW 33/1 Lads/365/888/Coral

Tramore 2:15        

7/1 about Oscars Well here is a bit too big to ignore given that there isn’t much between him and the 2^nd fav here who is 2/1 and that fact that Roi Du Mee ran poorly last time. This race should suit him fine and he has been running well this year so far. Any improvement from his previous runs will put him right in the firing line. He has been ultra-consistent without winning, although in fairness has come up against a few top class horses over the last year or 2.

2 Points win 7/1 Bet

Cheltenham 1:55

QUARTZ DE THAIX is the only horse in this field with any real preference for soft ground and despite him being poor enough this year especially last time, he looks a bit of value here at 22 on Betfair. The French horse at the bottom of the weights could also like this surface. Its taking a flyer that blinkers and hurdles will spark a bit of a recovery.

1 Point win 22 Betfair 

victor

Wellforth just got collared on the line at a huge price which would have been an unbelievable way to end the year, but still id have to be happy with the 1 point at 14/1 to place. ill be starting again from zero for 2014, and will have the stats up for last year in the next day or so, but its looking as if it’ll be above 150 points profit for the year, which is well above expectations.

Haydock 1:55

This race will be some slog and with that in mind may well suit the outsider of the field here Wellforth at a huge price. He has some very decent form in Ireland on heavy ground and did look to run well considering it was over a trip too shot and having made a mistake at the last over hurdles on his return. He is back to his last winning mark over fences here in what is probably a tough enough race but he could well grind out place here.

½ Point win 80 Betfair 1 Point Place 14

Welsh National

Tour Des Champs looks to be ideally suited by the test tomorrow. The stable are in great form, he likes soft ground and he looks a certain stayer. He is a few pounds out of the handicap but having only 10st on his back here tomorrow will be a huge help and I would imagine he could well be a few pounds well in anyway. I think 18/1 with 5 places with sky bet looks ideal. There is 20/1 available with 4 places but there isn’t much between those bets. He has plenty of decent form including 4^th in the Scottish national and a very good 2^nd at Cheltenham on his reappearance this year.

1 Points EW 18/1 Skybet 5 places.

Leopardstown 2:55

Ridiculously difficult race but I’m going to go with a one with proven form here. Romanesco was 2^nd in this last year then 3 at Cheltenham of this mark in the Kim Muir, he hasn’t done a lot since but I’m hopeful that this is his target and if he has improved after a few months off he may well get involved again here at a decent looking 25/1. I’m also going to go with and novice that could well be on a decent enough mark after a few consistent runs in decent novice chases this year. Clonbanan Lad looks good traveller and has performed well up against a few top drawer novices in his last 2 runs. He looks as though the extra trip here will be to his advantage and should be worth a small bet at 25/1

1 Point win Romanesco 25/1 VCbet/Will Hill

1 Point win Clonbanan Lad 25/1 Lads/Coral

King George

There isn’t any need to analyse this race at all today as the current best price of 7/2 (I got a bit of that really silly 4/1 a while ago), is simply too big about Cue Card. He easily beat most of these last time out and baring Al Ferof being a superstar, there isn’t a lot of reasons to suggest that he won’t do the same again today. In my view Cue Card is possibly shorter than 7/4 so 7/2 can’t be ignored.

2 Points win 7/2

Sedgefield 1:55

Just looking at this race and for some reason The Knoxs sticks out a bit for me here. He has a Claimer on first time and is down to a really appealing mark. He ran ok for a lot of the big Fixed Brush Hurdle last time out and has been dropped a lot for that run. I’m not sure why but maybe there is a plot for today. In addition there is a few quid in some of the other bookies for him lately.

1 Point win 9/1 Boylesports.

Fun Bet

A lot of poor enough racing today, and no real quality handicaps to get my teeth into so I’m going for a fun accum that looks great value with Bet365.

1 Point Trixie Bet365

Cue Card 4/1

The New One 11/10

HolyWell 9/4 (wincanton 1:40)

3:35 Ascot

This is a difficult race but I’m going with a couple of horses from David Pipes Stable with a bit of form on soft ground. I selected Dan Breen in this last year at a big price and he ran a great race of the same mark. Although he doesn’t have a claimer on today,  the current 100/1 looks too big to ignore and I’ll have to have a min bet. In Addition Ronaldo Des Mottes also ran his last good race on soft ground and looks to have been given a chance here by the handicapper. He looked good enough last time until running out of steam but if that has put him right he may well outrun his 50/1 Odds. In addition I’m going to have a just in case min bet on Vulcanite as he looks to me like one that could well pop up this year in a big handicap of his current mark.

½ Point win Dan Breen 120 Betfair

1 Point EW Ronaldo Des Mottes 50/1 5 Places Bet365

½ Point win Vulcanite 60 Betfair