I’m on hols with very limited wifi access, so shortish post today

1:55 York 

In for a penny in for a pound on Confessional here, he hasn’t looked at this best lately, but is well capable of this mark. He is more or less unconsidered here at 25/1 and has put in a few decent efforts this year.  If the balls fall right for him he’ll have A shout here at a very big looking 25/1. His form over 5f on good/firm ground reads well of higher marks than today.

1 point win win 25/1

3:15 newmarket

Gramercy appeals to me here at a big price after a bit of a return to form last time out. If he can improve today he may well stand a decent chance of getting involved here at a big price. 2  of his last 3 runs have been good and he’s worth a small risk at 20/1

1 point win 20/1

2:55 york

Saptapadi is the one that sticks out a bit here at a decent price. I’m hopeful he can get back to form at a track he has performed well at and of a mark he is certainly well capable of producing the goods On. I was hoping for a bigger price but 16/1 is worth a shot.

1 point win 16/1

2:05 Sandown

Kingsgate Native on his best form is a good bit clear of anything in this race, and there looks to be an overreaction to his poorer run last time as Ascot when he never really got into the race. He has possibly been as good as he ever was until that run and 6/1 here looks serious value as he doesn’t have to be at his best to win here

2 Points win 6/1 Stan James  & others

3:30 Haydock

Difficult race without any real standouts but Communicator has been a very consistent horse over the last year and although he wasn’t great last time at Ascot when he was hampered on a couple of occasions he could well get involved here of the same mark he was second in the November Handicap at the end of last year. He has had only 2 runs this year so , could well improve and looks great EW value at 28/1

1 Point EW 28/1 Stan James & Betvictor

2:40 Sandown

Taking a flyer here on the outsider of the field in Bronze Prince, he just looks too big a price for one with very decent form and of his current mark could well get involved here. He gave a very decent performance in a good conditions race at Kempton which looks very good now considering how the others have run since. I’m hopeful the step up to 8 will suit him and 66/1 is too big.

1 Point EW 66/1 Various

Bad day yesterday when all my selections never had a chance from the outset. But thats the way it goes.

3:45 Utt

Galaxy Rock, has been selected a few times by me in the last year or so without any success. This race today should be right up his street. The trip and ground is fine and he is down to a very winnable mark here. This looks like a very decent summer Chase and a welcome reprieve from rather boring in comparison flat racing. The selection has plenty of form of higher marks than today which will give him an excellent shout and the trainer in fairness has an excellent record in these good summer races.

2 Points win 12/1 Various

Newcastle 3:15

Ill De Re looks a decent price in this considering he won last year of this mark. His 2 runs this year weren’t great but he wouldn’t have had any chance with both conditions and distance. He has got the necessary but in the ground that would be required and has obviously been targeted at this race. I would have him as favourite on today’s ground and the 13 on Betfair is well worth taking

Blue Bajan is the one I’ve had in mind for this race for a while. He ran on well at Ascot and I think he stands a very high chance of placing here at a big looking 22/1. He is generally very consistent and stands a much better than 4-5/1 to be placed here.

2 Points win Ill De Re 13 Betfair

1 Point EW Blue Bajan 22/1 Stan James

2:40 Newcastle

Pearl Ice pops into my mind at once here, back on his last winning mark with just the 2 runs this year of which his last was an improvement. He is still a relatively unexposed horse and his trainer has an excellent record at this course. I had expected him to climb the rankings a bit after his win last year but he has been disappointing, however the 12/1 available with Coral looks value and worth a bet that today might be the day he starts back on the upward curve.

1 Point win 12/1 Coral

3:30 Newmarket

Hawkeyethenoo I think has been better than ever this year with some top notch performances in Group 1 races. I simply can’t see past him here and with the added advantage of the slight cut in the ground here I would have him as strong favourite. The Current 7/2 looks great value and although I’ll be putting it up as a 2 point bet that may be an understatement.

2 Points win 7/2 Various

7:45 Newcastle

Confessional is one I’ve been expecting to win shortly. He hasn’t had the best of runs last twice, but I expect him to be well capable of winning of his current mark, and will be backing him at decent odds until he does. This race has a weak enough looks about it and the 11 available on Betfair looks very decent value.

2 Points win 11 Betfair

I’m also going with Captain Dunne at a very big looking 23 on Betfair, as although he wasn’t great last time out if everything goes right for him here he is well capable of never getting caught of this mark..

1 Point win 23 Betfair

3:45 Ascot

I’ve been waiting to bet Maarek for this during the week as I wanted a nrnb at decent odds. He is very unlikely to run if it doesn’t rain and will shorten significantly as soon as it does. The 25/1 now available with Sky bet, will look exceptional value of it rains. His last run was poor but his previous run behind Society Rock when 5^th makes those odds looks very attractive as an EW bet. Obviously the more rain the better but he’ll have some chance if he runs at all.

1pt EW 25/1 SkyBET Non Runner No Bet

This race looks on the face of it between the top 2 in the betting here. They have proved a number of times to be a step ahead of most of the rest of the field here and its hard to see any change in that today. There is an unknown in Sea Siren and possibly Slade Power but I think the value here has to be the 8/1 Available about Gordon Lord Byron. There isn’t a lot between him and Society Rock, who is one of my favourite horses, but 8/1 looks too good to resist, and I think he is more of a 5-6/1 shot.  I also have Maarek bet earlier in the week in the hopes of rain, which now doesn’t look like arriving, but he still may get into a place.

2 Points win Gordon Lord Byron 8/1 Paddy Power

4:25 Ascot

Elusivity’s win record is poor enough really but in general he has been consistent enough. He sticks out here as being overpriced at 25/1 with 5 places on Paddy Power, and has a touch of class that a lot of these have yet to prove. He has been good form in all his runs this year and it’s a bit of a surprise for me that he is that unconsidered in this handicap at a mark he is more or less proven off.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places Paddy Power

I’m going for a min bet on a gut feeling selection as well, which is fairness has almost no reasoning behind it. Bapak Chinta won a very good 2yo race at Ascot a couple of years ago, and really didn’t show anything at all after that. I did see a tiny glint of hope last time out and he has dropped considerably in mark which might give him a tiny chance back here. It be kicking myself if he improved here and i wasn’t on at 80/1 on Betfair.

½ Point win 80 Betfair

5:00 Ascot

Silver Lime looks a fair bit overpriced here considering his very good run in the Ladbroke’s mobile over this c&d and conditions last year. He also showed up well on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket and although he was outpaced over a shorter trip next time out he has surely been aimed at this race. He has a first time hood on tomorrow and 22/1 with Paddy Power looks well worth a bet.

1 Point EW 22/1 Paddy Power

2:30

I’m going of something fairly straightforward in the 2yo race. Aidan O’Brien’s Friendship is available at 14 on Betfair at the moment, and despite the fact that he didn’t win on debut (which doesn’t mean anything as they always improve for a run), that price is too big to ignore. I find these 2yo races a total lottery at the best of times but the stable choice of runner here isn’t a 14/1 shot.

1 Point win 14 Betfair

Very good run from Top Trip yesterday to finish a good 3rd with possible not the best ride, in a very good race.

5:35 Ascot

Jamesie is one that has been knocking on the door in these types of races for the last year or so, and ran an eye-catching race at Ascot last time out when not getting much of a run and finishing well in 7^th. I kind of expected him to be one of the favourite’s here and if it does rain tomorrow he certainly won’t be inconvenienced by that. 22/1 with Betfair  looks maybe 5-6 points to big.

1 Point win 23 Betfair

I’m also going with a couple of min bets at big prices here. Anderigo has been running well this year and although a lot of his form in at York I don’t think he is a 50/1 shot so I’ll be having a min bet at 50 on Betfair. In Addition I’ve been thinking for a while now that Es Que Love might just pop up in one of these at some stage and he gave an eye-catching run earlier this week in the hunt cup when 3^rd of the bigger group on the near side. He is also available at 50 onn Betfair and should be better suited by this 7 furlong trip.

½ Point win each Anderigo & Es Que Love both 50 on betfair

Gold Cup 3:45

I’m going to back only 1 horse tomorrow as it’s not my type of racing with mostly 2yo and 3yo races. Rites Of Passage is one of my favourite horses and I can’t see past him for this tomorrow. He is the obvious form choice and I’m surprised to say the least that he isn’t favourite here.  The fact that he is in here after a break, isn’t a worry at all given that he has been very lightly raced. Even though Simenon looks best of the rest he has a long way to make up on proven group level form on the flat.7/1 looks a great price and if he can come near his best he will take some beating here.

2 Point win Rites Of Passage 7/1 Various

I’m going against my previous statement and going to back another horse in the same race. If there is a surprise here I think the most likely of the higher prices horses may well be Top Trip. His first run in the UK in the Yorkshire Cup reads well, and he looked sure there to be well suited to a further step up in trip. He is relatively  unexposed and with some pretty standard improvement here he could well get competitive here. He has some very decent middle distance form in France last year and looks a decent price at 20/1.

1 Point win 20/1 Coral & Stan James

Sole Power Kept our head above water yesterday with a  great win and ride.

4:25 Ascot

I liked David Livingstone when he was with A O’Brien and although he didn’t fulfil his potential last year at 3, I feel he is well treated here, and this should be his best trip. He is one of the least exposed in the field at this trip and he could well be a group horse at 4 then same as he was at 2. I missed the 16/1 for an EW bet but I’m still happy to go with a win bet at 14/1.

1 Point win 14/1 Generally

The other I feel is value here is Redact he has looked in a few of his good handicap runs last year that he would benefit for a step up to 8 furlongs, and has been consistent enough in 7 furlong races, and even in his last run against better horses he ran on well to take 3^rd at York a couple of weeks ago. That run could well make his current mark of 97 look fairly decent and put him in with a shout here. 40/1 with 5 places in Paddy Power and Bet365 looks to bet to make here.

1 Point EW 5 Places 40/1 Paddy Power & Bet365

2:30 Ascot

Parliament Square looks to be underestimated here as the stable second string and although he hasn’t been great this year over shorter trips he has some smart 2yo form and should be up to the task of getting placed here. 25/1 with 4 places on Sky bet looks a great bet and well worth a risk.

1 Point EW Skybet 25/1 4 Places

Ascot 5:00

Apache for me is a totally overlooked horse here.  I was happy enough with his last run when he was way too far back and came with a decent run to get to 5^th in the end at Haydock. He looks sure to be helped by the step up in trip and he could well have a touch of class, that if he is on his game here his current price of 40/1 with betvictor could look huge. He was a good 3^rd in the Melrose at york of 10lbs higher a couple of years ago and has been looking this year if he is building to a good performance. If that’s the case this race is surly his target. I think his place prospects are really strong.

1 Point EW 40/1 Betvictor

15:05 Ascot

This race for me can be narrowed down a fair bit, to proven Group 1 Performers. I think the Fav is too short here, even though he may be the most likely winner a lot has to go right for him in this big field sprint, which makes his odds of 2/1 look far too short. I think Kingsgate Native should well show up best of the first 3 from the Temple Stakes again, as he didn’t have the best position and seemed to win despite being on the wrong site. Sole Power is well capable of winning this if everything goes right and in general I think that can happen for him at a better ratio than the 9/1 currently available. He didn’t get the best of rides last time having being played far too early. I just can’t have any of the others at prices near these 2, not that they won’t improve but they haven’t done it yet. Usually something will surprise here and get into a place and it’s hard to pin down one of the outsiders that can but I’m getting a gut feeling the Prohibit might just improve here at the scene of his best race and be competitive. I’m afraid it’s the scatter gun approach for me here, with small bets on the 3 above.

½ Point win on Betfair all 3

Sole Power 10.5

Kingsgate Native 16

Prohibit 70         

3:45 Ascot

George Vancover hasn’t been great this season but I think he may outrun his odds here tomorrow. Apart from the top 2 in the market a lot of the rest of the field have as many questions to answer as he does this year. Bet365 are standout on the Place only Market at 18/1 and I think that could well be value here, he looks more of a 12/1 shot to place to me.

1 Point Place Bet365 18/1

Ascot Favs Treble

I’m going to add in the First 3 Favs bet here now, as right now on Paddy Power it’s working out at 20/1 and that looks more like value than earlier today. Shea Shea is out to 3/1 making it a bit of value.

1 Point Treble Paddy Power Animal Kingdon Evens, Shea Shea 3/1, Dawn Approach 13/8 20/1 Total