Sandown 2:20

This looks a tough race but I always facied the Noble Citizen might do well over 8 furlings, and is always like to back him when he is a big price. He has been reasonable this year, but had a few runs last year on decent ground that could put him in with a small chance. 55 seems a big price on betfair and I’ll have to have a min bet.

½ Point win Betfair 50

York 2:40

Brea Hill is one I’ve selected a fair few times in the past with a decent degree of success, and ill basically back him any time he is overpriced. His run last rime was poorer than normal but he did try to go around the field which was never going to work. He has form over this trip on good ground and 20 on betfair looks value. He has a good 5lbs claimer on today and that should help with his top weight.

1 Point win 20 Betfair   

Musselburgh 3:35

I fancy Stone Of Folca here for fairly obvious reasons. He is a pure 5f speedster and this race should suit in a similar vein to the Dash last year. He needs the good-firm ground and has an exceptional record fresh. It looks as if the stable have been waiting for him to come to hand for his seasonal debut and although 12/1 is a bit less than I hoped for he is still worth a 1 pt bet at those odds. I’m also going for an old friend of mine in Confessional who has some exceptional form last year. He ran a decent race in the dash but on his day is well capable of winning this of this mark. 20/1 looks great value for a horse of this quality.

1 Point win Stone Of Folca 12/1

1 Point EW 20/1 Confessional

5:20 York

Medici Time, is one that did me a huge favour last year at a big price and he’s sure to pop up at some stage this year so ill back him at big odds a few times until hopefully he decides to put in full effort. He is down to a winnable mark here and although he has shown precious little this year, he has come back from poor runs a few times in the past so I won’t let that stop me having a a bet at 48 on Betfair in case today is the day.

½ Point win 48 Betfair

Nott 4:10

El Viento is one that has come good for me a few times at big prices, and he looks to have a decent amount in his favour today. He has some very decent form over 6 furlongs on decent ground and although he is high enough in the weights he has ran well of this mark before. This year he did give an eye-catching run in a very good race at Newbury behind Heeraat, and any repeat of that could well be good enough to get involved here. 16/1 seems too big.

1 Point EW 16/1 Generally NON RUNNER

Roscommon 8:20

Decent race for a Monday, and I’m going to go with 2 horses that have done me a turn in the past and have been coming down the weights last year or 2. Both Sebadee and The Last Derby have been off form for a while now, but they certainly like the ground here and I don’t think its out of the question for either of them to be more competitive here of what are very low marks compared to runs a year or 2 ago. They both have a nice racing weight of 10:09 here and in what could be a very open race they are worth a small bet each.

½ Point win Sebabee 18/1 Bet Victor

½ Point win The Last Derby 32 Betfair

Haydock 2:05

Apache has looked in need of both runs this year, and now stepped up in trip of a nice looking mark with the application of a hood, today could well be a chance for him to get back to form. He was 3^rd in the Melrose at York 2 years ago of a mark of 98 and is in here of 89 despite having only run twice since. Both runs for his new stable have been over too short a trip and I’m pretty sure he was bought for this type of race. He also has winning form on firm ground. 22/1 looks a decent price.

1 Point win 22/1 Bet365 & BetVictor

Newmarket 2:55

Gatepost looks to have a very decent shot here of this mark given his very good runs here last year over c&d of significantly higher marks. He is 9lbs lower than what looks a very good 5^th here in a race that could scarcely have turned out better for those ahead of him that time. He looks as if he is ready to get back to form last time out at Chester and hopefully that can happen today. 12/1 in a few places looks a reasonable bet.

1 Point win 12/1 Boyles/Ladbrokes

Newmarket 3:30

Suegioo looks to be a small bit of value in this race. He has been very consistent and still looks to be on the upgrade. He was a very good 2^nd to the Fav last time out and gets a 3lbs turnaround in the weights. He didn’t have the best of runs in that race and there really should be anything between them this time. He looks a small bit of value at 7/1 compared to the fav who is half the price.

1 Point win 7/1 Generally

Newmarket 2:20

I’m going to go with a gut feeling selection here in Halfsin. He has some excellent course form here and although he was poor enough last year, with possibly too many runs on soft ground, and was again poor first time out this year, I’m hopeful hell turn it around at some stage. A Tongue Tie is tried for the first time today and if that can get him back to form at all he is well handicapped on his best for. It looks worth a min bet here just in case.

½ Point win 22/1 Generally

Stratford 8:30

I had a fair bit of confidence about Chapoturgeon at the festival until the ground came up soft on the day and I see no reason to think any different here. I don’t think that there is a lot between him and the fav on good ground, and I see negatives in the other 2 main contenders. Mossey Joe could well be a bit slow in the finish here, and Tammy’s Hill looks just short of winning this on form as well as the fact that the ground probably won’t see him at his best. Salsify does look the most likely winner but I don’t think he is value compared to the 8.0 available about Chapoturgeon. I may be guilty of following my selection of a cliff here but I can’t go without a bet at that price.

2 Points win 8.0 Betfair

7:30 Windsor

L’ami Louis sticks out here at the current prices as the value of this race. He looked in need of the run first time out this year, and if that has put him right he has a good a chance as any of the lower priced horses here in what looks a very tight sprint handicap. He also won 2^nd time out last year, and had a number of very decent performances afterwards in similar races to this. He is entitled to improve as a sprinter at 5 and 16/1 with Stan James looks a few points too big.

1 Point win 16/1 Stan James or 18.0 Betfair.

Both First Avenue and Right Step were disappointing, perhaps the hoped for softer ground that didn’t materialise, didn’t help their cause.

Confessional and Judge & Jury, didn’t perform up to scratch in the big sprint, with what looks a group horse winning that. Duke might be worth a look as an ante post bet in a 5f group 1 this summer. That was impressive.

We came closest when Rex Imperator just got tagged close home when unconsidered in the market at 28/1, to finish 2nd. There won’t be any value on him for a while after that run.

Epson 4:50

First Avenue gave his best hurdles run of his career in winning the Imperial Cup at Sandown earlier this year, which has to show him in very good form. He has some excellent course form which is vital around here. He was also a good 2^nd to Universal of  4lbs higher mark here last year of a similar break to the one he has had now and that horse has gone on to much better things since. It looks as if he has a great chance of this mark if he can carry his hurdles improvement trough to his flat form. He is 20 on Betfair at the moment at that look about double the price I would have expected him to be. I’m also going with a saver bet on another with great course form in Right Step. He is down to a very good mark on his best form and has looked lately as if a return might not be far away. Given his preference for this course id hope that this race has been his target for a while and 11/1 looks value

1 Point win First Avenue 20 Betfair

1 Point win Right Step 11/1 various

3:15 Epson

Some of the ones I had in mind for this race are probably too short at the moment like Captain Dunne and Stone of Folca, but aside from that there looks to be an overreaction to Judge & Jury’s last poor run at York. He started out this year in good form with a very decent 3^rd at York behind Ancient Cross and it’s possible that the next race came too soon at only 9 days later. He has some decent race form in that he was 4^th in this race 2 years ago of this mark, and will go on any kind of ground. In general he is a consistent horse and 25/1 with 5 places on bet253 looks a great bet.

1 Point EW 25/1 Bet365 5 places.

In Addition I’m now going to add Confessional at what looks a very decent price of 18/1 with BetVictor. He has run well in this race in the last 2 years and although he hasn’t set the world on fire this year yet I’m hoping this could be his starting point. He ran some eye-catching races in Pattern Company last year and a repeat of those runs will give him a great shout here.

1 Point EW 18/1 Betvictor                  

Doncaster 3:45

I’m going to go with a couple of small bets here on the 2 top weights here. Both Rex Imperator and Es Que Love have shown inconsistent form in the past but are worth small min bets here as any reproduction of form from either of them should be good enough to have a serious shout here. Rex hacked up in a very decent race at Windsor last year in some style and although he was a bit disappointing after that he is back down to that winning mark. Es Que Love has some very decent form last year of a lot higher marks than this and he did win a decent AW handicap this year of a higher mark than he has today. If Fallon can persuade him to perform to his potential, his big looking price will look very good.

½ Point win Es Que Love 25 Betfair

½ Point win Rex Imperator 24 Betfair

We had a nice winner Monday with Fine Parchment winning at 14/1, giving us a 12 point profit for the day. Both our flat selections ran well if leaving it a bit too late and look worth following in the near future.

Redcar 4:10

Jedward is a difficult horse to get at the right time, but he has looked to be working up to something over his first 2 runs this year and it should pay to follow him for a few runs in the hopes that he bangs one in shortly of this mark. He does need a decent amount of luck in running but he’s worth the risk here at 14/1 with Paddy Power. That price seems a bit too big and id have him more of a 10/1 Shot. He has form on both good and soft ground so hopefully tomorrow is his day.

1 Point win 14/1 Paddy Power NON RUNNER

3:50 Newton Abbot

Takeroc, on the face of recent form shouldn’t really have much of a chance here, but as soon as I looked at the race he stuck in my mind. I’m somewhat hopeful that Tony McCoy can galvanise resurgence from him and if he can do anything at all he is well capable of winning this of his current mark. He’s worth a small risk at what looks a decent price of 12/1. He has a nice racing weight here and that could well help along with the obvious assistance.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

3:40 Cartmel

King Fontaine should be well suited to the conditions here today. He has been improving of late and this race has a weak enough look about it. Hopefully he can travel a bit better than his last run where he was under pressure a long way out but stayed on for 2^nd. He will appreciate the good ground and trip here and in this field is probably value at 9/1

1 Point win 9/1 Stan James

3:05 Cartmel

Fine Parchment, hasn’t had a run on decent ground in a long time, and in general has much better results on good ground. He’s had a few decent runs this year on the unsuitable ground but could well improve a lot here, and is well capable of winning of this mark. 15 on Betfair look generous and a few points too big. His last run on good ground was a very decent 4^th in a better race than this in March last year of a 13lbs higher mark at Newbury.

1 Point win 15 Betfair

4:20 Carlisle

Extraterrestrial could well have a decent chance here at a nice price , given that the race has cut up a bit. He has got a very decent 5lbs claimer on today and is down to a decent mark judging by his second last run. He was poor last time but he is the inconsistent type anyway. 12/1 looks value in this race. If he can reproduce that 2^nd last run here, that price will look value.

1 Point win 12/1 Skybet

3:55 Windsor

Rocket Rob, is a selection of mine from his last run in a better race than this at Ascot. He ran an eye-catching race there coming too late to be 7^th in a big field.  He looks to have a decent draw here and if he can build on that last run he looks a bit of value at 14.5 on Betfair. He is well capable of getting involved of this mark.

1 Point win 14.5 Betfair