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LongshotValue

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Author Archives: longshotvalue

Monday Longshot

22 Monday Apr 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 11 Comments

15:10 Pontefract, 3:10

Decent race for a Monday at Pontefract today, and i fancy that Singeur is overpriced at 18/1 considering he has a decent record fresh and as down to his last winning mark. He has generally performed with credit above this mark and if he is ready to go today that 18/1 with Coral and Betfair is going to look very good value.

1 Point win 18/1 Coral Betfair

  • Ran a Decent race after drifting to 25/1 to finish 5th…

Saturday Report

21 Sunday Apr 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Just about Break even day yesterday, with a decent 3rd for Silk Hall at 33/1. Nothing else really got in with a chance. Knockara Beau ran well for most of the race but didn’t stay. Problematic fell. Oh Crick was disappointing.

One note was that Memory Cloth ran a great race to be 7th and he isnt far away from a decent pot of this or a slightly lower mark, hopefully at a decent price.

Punchestown next week although I’m not a fan of Irish Racing Handicaps so there won’t be that many selections. Some great racing in the Championship races though to look forward to.

Long Shot Saturday

19 Friday Apr 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Scottish Grand National

I’m having a bit of difficulty coming up with anything here but I’m going to start with a min bet on an old favourite of mine Knockara Beau. He is a huge price here and although he hasn’t been at his best this year one thing that is for certain he’s no 60/1 shot. If he gets around here at all he is capable of plugging on at the end past a lot of horses here and has a touch of class that most of the field doesn’t . He was poor here last year but in fairness that was after a very good run in the Gold Cup and he may not have had much left to give. He fell this year at the festival and hasn’t run since. That will hopefully give him a chance of performing here.

½ Point win ½ Point Place Betfair 60/12.5

I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Silver by Nature improve dramatically from his comeback run after a 2 year break. He won the Haydock National in great style of 4 lbs. higher a few years ago, and if the ground softens at all it will be to his advantage. I’m hoping that he has been prepared with this race in mind and he looks worth a min risk at 50/1 on Betfair.

½ Point win ½ Point place Betfair 50/10

NON RUNNER

Going through the race again Problematic sticks out a bit as a bit of value having come down a decent few pounds in the weights for his last few runs. He won at this meeting last year in a novice chase and appears to prefer decent ground. Usually horses that race up with the pace do well in this race and I’m hopeful that will be the plan today. His last run at Aintree was decent behind Battlegroup and 33 on Betfair looks a bit of value.

½ Point win 33 Betfair

Ayr 3:15

Oh Crick sticks out a mile as the value in this race as far as I can see. He is down to a winnable mark and I’m hoping that conditions will suit him tomorrow.  He wasn’t too bad at the festival in a much tougher race and looks value at 10/1 in this company of this mark. He seems to have been around for ages but is still only 10 so there should be a race or two in him yet and I’m hopeful tomorrow is one of those.

1 Point win 10/1 Ladbrokes

2:40

Silk Hall is the outsider of the field here and something is telling me he is overpriced. He should be capable of this mark and his last run back after a very long break was decent enough against 2 horses that are higher rated on unfavourable terms. He has had decent form in the past and the trainer likes this course. It more gut feeling than anything but worth a small shot at the 33/1 EW available.

½ Point EW 33/1 Various PP/Boyles/365 etc.

2:20 Newbury Spring Cup

Minefield of a race so near the start of the flat season so ill try a few and big odds for min bets..

Invisible Hunter looked a decent prospect when winning a Sandown maiden first time out last year, he was poor after but has been gelded and might be worth a min bet at huge odds here of what could be a decent mark of 91.

Memory Cloth is one I’ve earmarked as going to win on of these at some stage this year and although he was poor enough in the Lincoln , he is down another couple of pounds here and is back below his last winning mark. He is at a huge price on Betfair and ill have to have a min bet.

½ Point win Invisible Hunter 46 Betfair

½ Point win Memory Cloth 60 Betfair

Cheltenham 18/4

17 Wednesday Apr 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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3:45 Cheltenham

Maybe I’m imagining it but as far as I can see I’m narrowing this down to 2 here in last year’s winner Ashkazar who is only 1 lb higher than last year after basically doing nothing this year , and Galaxy Rock who I strongly fancied at the festival. Both will probably appreciate the decent ground and I don’t fancy anything ahead of them in the market. Ashkazar I’m pretty sure will be ready to run a big race here and Galaxy Rock has been waiting for a decent opportunity on good ground. He is only 1 lb higher than his very good 2nd here at the October meeting in a stronger race than this and repeating that could well be enough here.

1 Point win Galaxy Rock 8/1 Various

1 Point win Ashkazar 10/1 Ladbrokes

Wednesday Report + 2 Points

17 Wednesday Apr 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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Fredo ran well to be 3rd after getting backed into 11/1. Ghizao was a complete disaster and was never going at all..

2 Points Profit on the day isnt so bad..

Cheltenham 17/4

16 Tuesday Apr 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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2:45 Cheltenham

I’m going with an outsider I’ve sided with a few times before with a bit of success in Fredo here. The extended trip and decent ground should really suit him. He actually has a very decent course record usually running well and is down to what looks a very good mark. Although he was poor last time out, he ran a very good race here over too short a trip in a better race off 8lbs higher and any reproduction of that run will give him a great chance here.

1 Point EW 20/1 Various

3:55 Cheltenham

Ghizao was disappointing in the Ryanair but I’m not sure there is a lot between him and the Favourite Champion Court here apart from that last poor run. Conditions look to be in his favour and he is getting a nice bit of weight from the top 2 here. He has run well this year a couple of times particularly finishing well in the Ascot Chase on softer ground than ideal. It’s more of a gut feeling selection that this race could well suit him, and 8/1 looks a bit of value.

1 Point win 8/1 Paddy Power

3:20 Cheltenham

Minella Class is possibly down to a mark he can work off after a few poor runs this year. He seemed to go wrong last time out and I’m hoping that his 2 month break since might just spark a mini revival, and if it does I want to be there with a min bet at a huge looking price. He obviously is well handicapped on his best form having been a grade 1 winner, and I’ll take it as a bit of a sign that he remains with Henderson. He’s worth a small risk on Betfair.

½ Point win 38 ½ point place @ 8.2 Betfair.            

The Masters

14 Sunday Apr 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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I’m not a massive golf fan anymore but I can’t look a gift horse in the mouth, and the 8/1 about Tiger on Betfair at the moment is too big. If he does anything at all in the first 5-6 holes the rest of those ahead of him will be looking over their shoulders and that will even increase his chances. He is only 4 behind and as per usual on Sunday at Augusta scores are more likely to go backward that forward. It’s possible the 6 under could easily win this and I have Tiger as more of a 5/1 shot than 8s.

1 Point win Tiger Woods 9.0 Betfair

Long Shot Saturday

12 Friday Apr 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

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I’m going to keep my stakes low at the start of the flat season, as it’s difficult to assess form at this early stage.

Doncaster 3:30

Fitz Flyer is one I got placed at big prices a couple of times last year.  He started out last year in a similar race over c&d and ran well to be a fast finishing 5th. He has a decent record fresh and is down to a career low mark here. He does need everything to go his way with his run style but at 33/1 he’s worth a small bet here

½ Point EW 33/1 Various

I’m also going to have a small min bet on Colonel Mak here just in case he gets back to form, of what is a very good mark. I’ve had a look at his past record and he has come back from poor runs a few times to improve dramatically on his 2nd run after a break and actually done exactly that last year at a big price over this course & distance. At 25/1 he’s worth a small bet.

½ Point EW 25/1 Ladbrokes

Doncaster 4:05

I’m going to give one of my old selections a small chance here at a price. Hillview Boy is down to a very nice mark and ran well enough on his reappearance here last month to be 3rd in a similar race. He looks overpriced at 19 on Betfair and should have a decent shout if he can get back to form at all here.

1 Point win 19 Betfair

Longshot Sunday

07 Sunday Apr 2013

Posted by longshotvalue in Saturday Selections

≈ 1 Comment

4:40 Ascot

Fruity O’Rooney has been running well this year possibly on unsuitable softer ground, and in this Veteran’s race I fancy he’ll be very difficult to catch here. He is down another 2 lbs from his very decent 5th at the festival and this race is much weaker (that said Tullamore Dew is also engaged). I didn’t think he would be 6/1 here and that looks great value.

2 Point win 6/1 BetVictor & StanJames

Image

100/1 Winner of the National Auroras Encore Tipped 1pt EW…..

06 Saturday Apr 2013

Grand National 2013: Ryan Mania rides 66-1 shot Auroras Encore to victory at Aintree

Posted by longshotvalue | Filed under Saturday Selections

≈ 3 Comments

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