Grand National

I’m going to throw a few small bullets at this race, as I just cant find anything concrete at the moment.

I like the look of Harry The Viking at a big looking 50/1 EW. He looks a certain stayer and has had a couple of promising runs this season in competitive handicaps. His 2^nd behind Teaforthree in the 4 miler at the festival last year reads well. 50/1 looks a few points too big and worth an EW bet

1 Point EW 50/1 5 places Stan James & Boyles Sports

I already have 1 point on What a Friend at 180 on Betfair in my Ante-Post Selection and I fancy him to get in the places here if he gets around. The ground is really in his favour and he has always looked as if the extreme distance here will suit.  I particularly like him for the long run in here and he always seems to power home at the end of his races (often when it’s too late to be fair). 66/1 with 6 places with Bet Victor looks worth a small bet.

½ Point EW 66/1 6 places BetVictor

I’m going for 2 more min bets on the national, in the hope that I can have a winner and not have to look at Alex Fergusson in the winners Enclosure.  I’ve been struggling to come up with anything but Auroras Encore might just be well handicapped on his very good 2^nd in the Scottish version last year. He has a good few poor runs on softer ground since but is down to a lower mark that that run and if he can get back to form in similar conditions 100/1 with 5 places looks great value.

I’m also going with a small bet on a bit of class in Quel Esprit. Even though he has fallen a few times in general he is a very good jumper and conditions might just suit him today. He has had very little racing this year, and although he does look as good as he was he is still only 9 and there could well be a big race in him. Hes worth the risk of a small bet at 50/1

1 Point EW 100/1 Auroras Encore 5 Places Bet365 and others

1/2 Point EW 50/1 Quel Esprit 5 places Bet365

Aintree 3:25

Planet of Sound has been given a fair chance here by the handicapper. He has come down in the weight after runs on unsuitable soft ground. He hasn’t had a lot of races in the last 18months but he has everything in his favour here and could well be ready to run here. 12/1 looks a decent price.

1 Point win 12/1 Various

Aintree 5:10

Paintball has done basically nothing since his very good win in the Imperial Cup last year, but he is in here after a break of a lower mark on good ground and I really fancy that he could get back to form today. He won that imperial cup after a decent break and with very similar circumstances here all round 25/1 could well be decent value.

1 Point EW 25/1 Various

Aintree 1:45

I fancied Dodging Bullets at the festival and he was poor there after bleeding. Today’s conditions look sure to suit him in a lower class race. His main competition Up & Go has been performing on Soft Ground and this race will be a completely different proposition. If my selection is back to form here 3/1 looks huge.

2 Points win 3/1 Various

2:50 Aintree

Oscara Dara travelled well for a long way in the world hurdle and may be just a bit better than his final position there. I think he stands a chance of placing here and 40/1 EW ¼ 123 with Stan James look a small bit of value and worth a min bet.

½ Point EW 40/1 Stan James

So far we have had 3 Big Price 2nd Placed horses Thanks For That, Clerks Choice and Walkon, which is hitting the goalpost in serial fashion but still profit is profit, and it’ll be needed today in the lottery that’s the national

4:50 Aintree

Clerks Choice ran a superb race in the county hurdle at the festival considering the state of the ground on the last day won’t have suited him at all. The way he stayed up the hill there should mean he will have no difficulty in getting the extra trip here on a much easier course with miles better ground. He ran a great race of 6lbs higher at this time last year in the Scottish Champion hurdle and looks well overpriced at 33/1

1 Point EW 33/1 Various

3:40 Aintree

I’m going to give Tranquil Sea a bit of a chance at a huge price in the Topham. He ran well over c&d  in December, and has had a break since his last run hopefully to be ready for a shot at this. He jumped well last time apart from 1 mistake at the water jump and is 6lbs lower in the weights. He is still near top weight but on good ground this might not mater as much, and I’m hopeful he can put in a decent show tomorrow at a huge price.

1 Point EW 33/1 5 Places Various Boyles/PP etc.

I’m also going with a bit of class here at a big price in Walkon he’s a big price because he was poor enough at the festival although still finished 5^th. He is down another couple of pounds here and has also won at this festival before. He was very good in his first 2 chases this year and if he can take to these fences he is bound to travel well. He looks a huge price at 25/1 and id be kicking myself if he won at that price.

1 Point EW 25/1 Paddy Power 5 Places

4:15 Aintree

Master of the Sea, looks overpriced in the w/o fav market in Ladbrokes. He is generally 6/1 in the standard market but is a nice looking 5/1 here. I like these proven handicappers in these novice events and I would have him favourite here without Fishers Cross.

2 Points win 5/1 W/o Fav Ladbrokes

4:15 Aintree

Thanks for That, is a pure good ground 2 miler and it’s been a while since he’s had that. He was a very good 2^nd last year at the festival and didn’t get his conditions there this year. He is sure to be tuned up for this time of the year and has very little racing this year in comparison to the rest. He is 2lbs lower than his run at the festival last year and 20/1 looks a great price.

1 Point EW 20/1 Various

3:40 Aintree

Paul Nicholls holds the key here with the Fav and an interesting contender in Rebel Du Maquis. He performs best on good ground and I liked the look of his last run at Cheltenham over 2m5,when travelling well until a mistake 3 out in a much better race than this. This might be plan b but he has an excellent jockey on board and as an 8yo can beat some of the older better fancies ones here.

2 Points win 10/1

5:25 Aintree

Sentry Duty is one who has generally been disappointing for a while now. I did like the look of one of his flats run this year, and gut feeling tells me that this race might just suit him. 3 Miles on a flat track of a half decent mark might just give him a chance at a huge price and it’s worth a shot just in case

1 Point EW 40/1 William Hill

2:00 Aintree

I’m not sure there is much between most of these near the top of the market, and Vasco Du Ronceray was a very good 5^th at the festival when he had a silly amount of ground to make up over the last 2 flights. He has the assistance of Tony McCoy here tomorrow and at the current odds of 8/1 he looks the value of the race. He was ahead of the favourite at Cheltenham and I don’t really see any reason for that to change here.

2 Points win 8/1 Various

A fair few shocking selections for this week so far, hopefully what looks a Great Aintree Festival will improve things..

4:35 Fairyhouse

Hisaabaat has been a bit of a disappointment this year, but looked to be travelling well at the festival last time out until a huge mistake 3 out put paid to any chance he had. I’m willing to take a small chance on him again at a big looking 28/1 in a few places.

1 Point ew 28/1 various

3:40 Exeter.

I Fancied Spirit River for one of the hurdles at the festival, and I’m not going to desert him now, despite him not running in Cheltenham. He looks a good ground horse and hasn’t had that since his very good hurdles form a few years ago. He isn’t up against any superstars here and if his jumping can improve on the better ground he’ll have a decent chance here. 7/1 in this race looks great value

3 Point’s win 7/1 Stan James Coral Betfair

3:10 Fairyhouse

Shamiran looks a decent price at 20/1 for this race. He has been in great form on the flat and over hurdles last year. He probably needed his last run after a break and is about 4-6 points bigger than I would have expected. His racing style could well make his a very decent shout to place at least.

1 Point EW 20/1

Irish Grand National

I’m never one for going for any of the favourites in these races as they are invariably too short, and recent results in this race have proven that point. I’m going for 2 long shots that have on their best form the capability to compete. Both have been poor enough lately but that has resulted in a very big price. Cross Appeal won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown last year and followed up with a great run of a higher mark in the Galway Place. He is still a young and possibly improving horse, who hopefully has had this race in mind. He looks easily worth 40/1 with 5 places on Stan James. I’m also going with Our Victoria at an even bigger price. She was a very good 4^th in 4 miler at the festival last year of a higher mark, has had a break lately and is actually very consistent in her runs. 50/1 with 5 places looks huge, given that she will stay the trip.

1 Point EW 40/1 Cross Appeal Stan James 5 Places

1 Point EW 50/1 Our Victoria Stan James 5 Places

Spring Mile

Im going to stick with last weeks bet on Barren Broke at 25/1 with Paddy Power, but increase my stake to 1 point EW.

1:55 Spring Mile

Looking at last year’s Lincoln Barren Brooke stood out as travelling well after a tardy start. He finished his race well and is in the spring mile this year of near bottom weight. He is 10lbs better off than last year, and although he hasn’t a lot of form on soft there is some there. He also can stay a bit further than the mile here and that might be crucial in this ground. The 25/1 with Paddy Power looks a bit big as worth a small EW Bet.

1 Point EW 25/1 Barren Brooke Paddy Power NON RUNNER

My Main selection Barren Broke is a non-runner and, I’ve had another look and Extraterrestrial looks possibly well treated in here. He has some decent form on soft ground and in generally has run well with this jockey on board. He’s not getting any younger but can get involved of this rating. He has a reasonable rating fresh 25/1 looks a nice EW price.

1 Point EW 25/1 various Extraterrestrial

3:05 William Hill Lincoln

Memory Cloth has some great form on soft ground of around this mark. His first run back this season on the AW can be safely ignored, as surly this race has been the plan for a while. Although he is near the top of the weights he carries a reasonable 9:00 even and that shouldn’t rule him out. He looks a decent price at 22/1 on Paddy Power with 5 places

1 Point EW 22/1 5 Places Paddy Power

1:20 Doncaster

Colonel Mak looks seriously well in at the weights here. He is a proven soft ground performer and won this race last year of 3 lbs higher. He has some very decent runs after that last year including an excellent 5^th in the Ayr Gold Cup again on soft ground. That kind of form will have a serious chance here in this race and 10/1 looks a bit of value here.

1 Point win 10/1 Various

Haydock 2:05

King Fontaine  is one I’ve selected a few times including when placed last year in the Scottish National. He is 11lbs better off here having a couple of poor runs this year mostly on unsuitable soft ground. My feeling is another tilt at the National is on the cards and he will have to win here to get in the race. The decent ground is in his favour and he has a couple of course wins here to boot. 10/1 might be a bit of value.

1 Point win 10/1 Various

Meydan 1:10

Red Jazz looks a rather silly price at 25/1 with Ladbrokes for this race, considering he possibly the highest rated in the field with proven course form. He was very poor last time but is well capable of putting in a decent run here and can’t be ignored at that price, especially as he’s been placed twice in this race before.

1 Point EW 25/1 Ladbrokes

Meydan 3:05

Starspangledbanner also looks overpriced here at 25/1 given his past form, and im not sure he would be coming all the way here without being somewhat ready to give him running. He’s worth the risk at that price. I’m also going to have a bet on Sole Power here as he looks well overpriced at 7/1 considering he was second to a very good horse in this last year and is a proven Group 1 performer. He should be much closer to the fav here and is worthy of a bet.

½ Point EW Starspangledbanner 25/1 EW Ladbrokes

2 Points win Sole Power 7/1 Coral

Meydan 6:05 Dubai World Cup

I’m going with a small bet on a couple of outsiders here in Meandre and last year’s winner Monterosso.  Meandre has always looked a top class horse in the making and I think it is significant there he is sent here for this race. If he can act on this surface he could well cause a shock here at a big looking 25/1. Last years winner Monterosso was my selection last year and even though he was poor in his last run there is a decent chance that he can recapture that for here again at what looks a few points too big at 14/1.

½ Point win Meandre 25/1 Various

1 Point win Monterosso 14/1 Various

Unfortunately the NH Season takes a break from the spotlight tomorrow and I’m going to have to wade through flat handicaps with no form to speak off. I’ll be keeping stakes low at the start of the season as it’s always difficult.

2:40 Spring Mile

Looking at last year’s Lincoln Barren Brooke stood out as travelling well after a tardy start. He finished his race well and is in the spring mile this year of near bottom weight. He is 10lbs better off than last year, and although he hasn’t a lot of form on soft there is some there. He also can stay a bit further than the mile here and that might be crucial in this ground. The 25/1 with Paddy Power looks a bit big as worth a small EW Bet.

½ Point EW 25/1 Barren Brooke Paddy Power 

Newbury 2:20

Urgence D’estruval is one I tipped up before with a fair bit of confidence but she got well beaten by Violin Davies. She has a considerable turnaround in the weights with that horse, and will be suited by the heavy ground. I just got the feeling after watching her first run in Britain that she might just win a decent race this season and this is probably her last chance. 14/1 looks a bit of value and worth a small bet.

1 Point win 12/1 various

It was the first year I made a loss punting on course at the festival as long as I can remember. There was a number of big priced placers, including Tullamore Due/Captain Sunshine/Double Ross/Oiseau de Nuit put up as selections here. On course I also had a couple more on course  including Celestial Halo and Swincombe Flame, which along with the above kept the wolf from the door.

Of my Antepost Selections the 2 I was most confident of were Chapoturgeon & Boston Bob. The Ground change ruined any chance the Chapoturgeon had and as we saw Boston Bob fell in the last when In command.

I got lucky with a few multiples online which I had put in as insurance in case of short priced winners, which of the about 10 done 3 came up. Hurricane Fly/Quevega/Sprinter/Salsify (which I done to backup my Chapoturgeon bets) and a nice last day insurance bet of Our Conor and Bobs Woth (both of which I thought were under-priced, although Our Conor hit 9/2 on course). I also had the first day shortie Treble of Fly/Quevega/Simonsig which was  insurance for my silly confidence in Overturn which was seriously unfounded.

All in all the few multiples more than made up for losses but when they weren’t selections I made I wasn’t bothered about returns and I won’t be doing these insurance bets again. Still it was nice enough to get back and have decent funds in online accounts.

The highlight of the festival for me was Hurricane Fly, and Our Conors win in the Triumph. The way he just blew past Diakali on the turn for home reminded of the commentary on that famous Breeders cup Arazi win a good few years ago “He’s Gone right by him”

The selections here including my Antepost bets that ran made a loss of 9.5 points, which could have been much worse but for getting placers at big prices in the last 2 races.