Newcastle 7:00

A while ago Jack Dexter was a bit of a cliff horse of mine, and although we did alright with him i think we got more places than wins. Having watched his last race again I’m pretty sure he is ready to go in soon enough. He met all kinds of trouble in the Scottish Sprint Cup and appeared to be full of running. He looks worth the risk here at 12/1. To me he has a better than average chance of winning here and he is about the average price of the field here in an open race. 9/1 might be a more accurate estimate of his true price

1 Point win 12/1 365/paddy/stan/betfair/bright/marathon

8:20 Naas

Jigsaw caught the eye for me last time out when it looked like the penny eventually dropped and she decided to put her head down and run . I put her in the tracker with a note about a possibly decent mark . She has that here and if donnacha can get her going early she has a chance in a weak race . 16/1 is worth the risk .

1 point ew 16/1 paddy and Betfair

Kilbeggan 6:25

Following my picks in Irish Jump racing is like setting fire to money but I can’t resist a small bet here on Gentleman Duke. He is on a nice mark here over hurdles compared to his jumps mark, has had two decent runs lately over fences and has won of this mark over hurdles as well. He has been a disappointing horse in general but is bottom of the weights with a  very good claimer booked. 14/1 is probably value

1 Point win 14/1 vc/paddy/betfair 12/1 generally

Ascot 5:00

Donjuan Triumphant looked a sprinter going places with a couple of very good runs early last year that were group 1 class. He fell away a bit after that but has popped up here on a workable mark at a huge price drawn high and that could be a potent combination today. He also stays a bit further than 6 furlongs which is an advantage in these races around here. Any repeat of his 2^nd to Quiet Reflection or Signs of Blessing here and well be counting our money. He is a big price because of 2 underwhelming performances this year but his last run was a big improvement and im hopeful today will have been the plan. 40/1 with 6 places seems just huge.

2 Points EW 40/1 6 places Paddy 33/1 6 places Sky           

I’m also going for another Group 1 Sprinter in Danzeo . He has just dropped too far in mark after a couple of reasonable runs and I’m convinced he wont be far away here. He is drawn in the middle which is a disadvantage but at least he will be able to choose depending on the earlier race. 22/1 looks a bit overpriced.

1 Point EW 22/1 6 places Paddy/Sky

4:20

Growl is just too big a price here after a couple of poor enough runs over too far and on soft ground. Today will surly be the day he is 100% and with course and distance group 1 form to his name last year 33/1 is great value.

1 Point EW 33/1 Paddy 4 places 25/1 4 places generally

I’m going with a cliff horse of mine that will do something for me some day Finsbury Square has shown signs of late that he can get involved in one of these at a huge price. I’m hoping the 6 furlongs here will suit him and 80/1 is a big enough price to take the risk.

1 Point ew 8/1 coral/vc/lads

3:40

My Dream Boat looks the value in here as a proper group 1 horse in a group 2. There is nothing between a lot of these and the top 2 seems pretty short as they are stayers and might be caught for pace here.18/1 is big

1 Point win 18/1 coral 16/1 Generally. NON RUNNER

5:30

Vent de Force will have to come back to form to get involved but if he does he will go close . He is a solid 108 at least on a lot of his previous form and I think he showed enough last time to be of interest here at 20/1.

1 point win 20/1 sky 18/1 generally

3:05

Muntazah looks value here judging on a few of his very good group performances last year . The fav is very short on what he has done and is creating a lot of value . 22/1 is just too big .

1 point ew 22/1 paddy /vc

3:40

My Dream Boat is now a non-runner, so I’m going to go with a horse I was thinking of anyway. I learned a long while ago to never let a Jim Bolger horse go off too big and Stellar Mass is a  huge price here. He went on a very good run of form last year including a top class run in the Irish derby and comes here with 1 fairly poor prep run resulting in a huge price. He doesn’t have that much to make up on a lot of these and 50/1 is worth the risk even if the place terms here aren’t great.

1 Point ew 50/1 ¼ place 365/coral/lads and more.

 

Roly Poly gave us another winner at Royal Ascot at 8/1 w/o winter. 2 66/1 shots ran excellent races in 6th Actress and Lustrous Light

5:35

I’m going with another unexposed horse here. Shabeeb looked a very good horse on good-firm last year. He won 2 decent races and ran great in a race that has worked out really well at Newmarket. He has had 1 poor run this year and shows up here for a trainer in form at a huge price. I think he has a workable mark here and 40/1 with 5 places looks huge.

The other Horse I’m interested in here is Lustrous Light at a huge price. He looks a decent near group class horse in Ireland and I’m hopeful he has been moved to the uk for better ground. He has enough form in the book already to make his 50/1 price too big of this mark

2 Points EW Shabeeb  5 places 40/1 Paddy/Betfair 4places ¼ bet365 40/1

1 Point EW Lustrous Light 5 places 50/1 Paddy/Betfair 40/1 6 places sky

2:30

The low drawn horses look to have this in a stranglehold but I’m going to go with value on the other side in Actress. She ran well enough against the hot fav last time out and she has been totally written off because she has been beaten by a potential superstar. She is a silly 66/1 with 365 and id be knocking them over at that price but the general 33/1 4 places is plenty good enough

1 Point EW 66/1 4 places 365 33/1 4 places generally

On the low side I’m going to go with Wesley Wards 2^nd string Princess Peggy. There is nothing between his 2 runners here and she is just too big at 22/1.

1 Point ew 22/1 4 places Princess Peggy generally

4:20

Roly Poly has an equal chance of any of the shorter priced horses in the w/o winter race and I think 8/1 is at least 3 points too big . She really improved on her last run and could be better again here.

1 point win r8/1 w/o winter sky/hills 15/2 365

Super improved performance from Sioux Nation at a huge 20/1

2:30

Sioux Nation was progressing like a good horse until he hit softer ground on his last run. Previous to that he got outstayed by Brother Bear who ran a great race here on Tuesday. The drop in trip and fast ground could well suit him and 20/1 is big enough .

1 Point win 20/1 sky/hills/lads/bv and more

3:05

I’ve been done here again by Pricewise, Order of the Garter should be fav here and I’ve missed the 7/1 from yesterday. I’m not so sure about 9/2. Watching brief for me but I hope he scoots up.

4:20

This is a very straightforward pick here. Trip to Paris has been a bit disappointing since his win here and to be fair that race probably wasn’t the best but there are only a few horses that can fully see out this trip. I’m encouraged that this time last year he ran a great race over far too short a trip behind Scottish and ignoring Mayden and his next run, I’d have to think he will be right for today. 80/1 is madness. If I could get 4 places id be losing the plot here but we’ll have to make do with 3. Quest for more will almost certainly be vastly improved here today after a poor trip to mayden and an expected meyden hangover afterwards. I’m sure he will be ready for this. Winning at Longchamp last year was a big step up over the longer trip and I’m fairly sure he is the 2^nd best horse on display here. 28/1 is about twice the price he should be

1 Point EW Trip to Paris 80/1 BV/betway/tote/fred

2 Points EW Quest for More 28/1 Stan 25/1 paddy/hills and more

 

5:00

Senator looked to be progressing like a nice horse as a 2yo until he pulled far too hard in a listed race. He ran a decent enough race over too short a trip on soft ground on his 3yo debut and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the step up and decent ground really suited him of what looks a workable mark.33/1 6 places looks value

1 Point EW 6 places Paddy/Betway 28/1 6 places Sky

5:00 Royal Hunt Cup

Tashweeq is the type of lightly raced horse that could have something up his sleeve for this race. He certainly looked a group performer at 2 with some very good runs. He missed his whole 3yo season and then reappeared lately with a poor enough run on the face of it. He just seems to stand out as having potential and 50/1 seems a huge price.

Zhui Feng ran a great race for us in the Victoria Cup and may well be better over this trip. He is better of with the winner there and looks very likely to take a serious hand in the finish here at what looks a big price.

1 Point EW Tashweeq 50/1 6 places paddy 40/1 6 places sky/betway 50/1 5 places generally

2 Points EW Zhui Feng 28/1 6 places paddy /sky/betway

3:40 Ascot

This looks a tight race apart from the top 2, of the rest I’ve settled on Furia Cruzada as the value at a huge price. There really looks to be very little between many of these behind the favs and she is as likely to get involved as a few that are less than half her price. 66/1 is worth the risk

1 Point Ew 66/1 Generally

4:20

I know it just looks like I pick the biggest price AOB horse and go with it but I do like Johannes Vermeer. He is a classy horse on his best form and for me was eye-catching enough in the irish 2000. This step up in trip will suit and I think he won’t be too far away from placing here at up to 66/1 is a silly price.

1 Point EW 66/1 Betway 50/1 Generally

5:35

Im afraid this is a no bet race and Pricewise has ruing the price on my selection Rain Goddess. If she was to drift back out to 12/1 or better id be having a point win, as she is a classy horse and I fancied her for the French oaks before she wasn’t declared.

2:30

I fancy 2 horses here at decent prices. Glastonbury Song wasn’t suited by the soft ground in the irish 2000 but should get involved here at a big price. Escobar looks to me to be suited by this drop in trip and fast ground and is also value.

½ Point win Glastonbury Song 25/1 Generally

½ Point win Escobar 25/1 Generally