Cheltenham 1:15

Pretty straightforward choice for this tomorrow, Petit Robin has an unbelievable 11321 record fresh and has somehow come down in mark after a series of very decent performance in both hurdles and over fences. I would imagine the jockey booking wouldn’t mean anything as he has in the main been ridden by his rider tomorrow who will take of the 5lbs. He looked the most likely winner from Henderson’s crew and probably should be the favourite here.

2 Points win 9/1 Various

Cheltenham 2:25

I can’t really get excited about anything in this race and am happy to go with min bets on the 2 outsiders of the field here in Gauvain and Tap Night. Gauvain has been performing reasonable well in hurdles lately and he does have a very decent record around here on decent ground. Although he is off top weight here it doesn’t look a very strong renewal and 50 on Betfair is too big not to have a small bet. Tap Night was poor than expected last time out in a similar race to this but has some very decent novice form and  for me is overpriced at 40 on Betfair to get back to improving form.

½ Point win  Gauvain Betfair 50

½ Point win Tap Night Betfair 40

Cheltenham 2:40

I like these races and Shalimar Fromento has plenty of experience having raced in France a lot over the last year. He has performed well in races at level weights with some very decent horses, and the trainer has won a few of those races in France so he knows what’s required.  He had some very good novice form and is still a young horse so hopefully has some improvement in him. He is in here with a nice racing weight and looks a good bet to place at least at a better than expected 18/1 with BetVictor .

1 Point EW 18/1 BetVictor

2:05 Aintree Beacher Chase

I’ve had nothing but Walkon in mind for this for the week and I’m not going to change now. He ran a superb race in the Topham last year over these fences albeit with 5 lbs less on his back but he gave the impression then that the extra trip here wouldn’t pose any problems, and his jumping was superb . He is still only 8 and could well improve again this year. I think he is the favourite for this race on form, and the current 18 on Betfair seems a great value. He was poor enough on his return this year, but hopefully he has been readied for this after last year.

2 Points in 18 Betfair

On other runner caught my eye of a very good mark, Mr Moonshine looked to be on the way back to form here in his first run this year over too short a trip in a very good race. He jumped and travelled well that day and I get the feeling that he could well be a natural over these fences, along with the fact that this race could well suit his racing style. He was poor in the 2 runs after but has popped back to form a good few times after poor runs before. 33/1 with 5 places in a few places looks a nice bit of value.

1 Points EW 33/1 5 Places Paddy Power Bet365

2:00 Chepstow

Viking Blond has been poor enough in his few starts this year, but he didn’t take to the cross country at all. He has a very good course record around here and should get competitive around here of a mark of 130 with a 7 lbs. claimer on today. This looks a fairly poor race and 14/1 looks a very decent price given that.

2 Points win 18 Betfair 14/1 generally

Very quick one last minute , that i had a look at this morning .

5:20 My Kindgom , has been in decent form lately and should have a small chance of this mark. 50 on betfair looks a bit too big not to have a small bet. He has performed on AW before of this and higher marks.

1/2 Point EW 50/13 Betfair 33/1 Generally

Best day in a long time Saturday with 2 big winners in Tatenan and Vendor obliging surprisingly easy at big prices. Tatenan is one I’ve advised on each of his 3 wins in the last few years at big prices, and is rapidly turning into my favorite horse. He is certainly my most profitable. Ill be doing an update later for the year but that puts us back into respectability for sure. We also had a good run from Grumiti who placed as expected at a decent price of 12/1.

 

 

Newbury 1:20

Tatanan, is an old friend of mine who has come up for me on a couple of occasions for decent bets, and I feel he is being underestimated here. He has been poor in his last few runs, but they have all been over too far and his record over this sort of trip is actually very decent. Only 12 months ago he was a very decent 6^th in a much tougher race than this at Cheltenham and I think he has been dropped too far on a mark of 128. He is still only 9 and should have a very good runs in him yet. 33/1 is way too big

1 Point EW 33/1 Corals Paddy Power

In this race I’m also going for another horse at a decent price in Hector’s Choice, the decent ground here will be in his favour compared to the soft last time and has usually improved for a run. He is a strong traveller on his day and has been given a decent chance here by the handicapper. He’s worth a shot at 20/1

1 Point win 20/1 Various

NewBury 1:50

Vendor has been a disappointing horse after his good 3^rd of only 1 lb lower than his current mark at the festival. But he was in the process of running well when supported at Sandown last year on decent ground, when being brought down, and that fall may have affected him on his next run. He is back here on his first run of the season on decent ground and I think he may well get back some of the potential that he showed. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was supported for this tomorrow and 25/1 looks value.

1 Point EW 25/1 Various

Newcastle 2:05

Grumeti looks underestimated here at 12/1 with bet365 and a few others. He is a consistent horse with very good 4yo form for 18 months ago. He’s has a few very good runs on the flat and a decent 4^th under a big weight in the Scottish Champion Hurdle last year. To me he is odds/on to get placed at least here and 12/1 with bet365’s ¼ odds is worthy of a decent bet.

2 Points EW 12/1 Bet365 ¼ Odds

Fairyhouse 2:30

Flat Out Is finally back on the racecourse after nearly 3 years off. He was in the process it appeared of winning a Grade 1 Novice Chase last time we saw him until he fell travelling well only 2 out and when I saw him here before I looked at the prices I was expecting a very short price. I must be losing it but 7/1 seems very generous in this race of a mark of 139, with only 11 stone on his back. He was in the top level of novice hurdlers before he tacked fences and although he has been of a long time Willie Mullins is surly capable of getting him ready for his first run.

2 Points win 7/1 Various

Hennessy Gold Cup

I’ve looked at this a few times this week and basically ruled everything out. Nothing at all sticks out for me as a potential huge improver. At the current prices the only one that interests me at all in Imperial Commander now available at 25/1. He is 9lbs better off for his very good reappearance after a long layoff at Cheltenham last year on what was probably unsuitable heavy ground. I think he’ll be better here on decent ground and he has drifted to a price now that looks enticing.

1 Point EW 25/1 365 5 places

Haydock 1:50

Scanning trough this race looking for and angle and as soon as I had a look at Matthew Riley’s form he is a standout here of his mark. He was a very good 4^th in the Bumper at Aintree in 2011, that race could not have worked out any better as its littered with very decent horses. He then just failed to catch Runswick Royal in a soft ground Newcastle novice hurdle, that horses is now rated 140+. He has had one blip in his last run, in which he stayed on after a mistake early on. He has a decent record fresh and is sure to be suited by the step up in trip and soft ground here. 33/1 is a massive price and worthy of a decent EW bet

2 Points EW 33/1 Bet Victor Stan James Betfair

Haydock 2:25

Utopie Des Bordes has some top class form in France, that could translate well in to this type of race. She also has some very decent run at the festival in the Alfred Bartlet and also at Aintree. I’m hopeful that today’s race was the plan for her this year and with that in mind I’m ignoring her poor enough season opener. The Trip ground and possibly hurdles should be right up her street and she has nice racing weight of 11:00 here. 12/1 looks a nice bet of value.

1 Point win 12/1 Various

I’m going to have an additional saver on this race on an old favourite of mine in Restless Harry, he is off a ridiculously low mark albeit after a number of runs on unsuitable good ground and in the small hop that the plan is for a better run today he’s worth a small gamble at 48 on Betfair, more to avoid the annoyance of watching a decent run today with no money on at those odds.

1 Point win 48 Betfair 40/1 Generally

Betfair Chase

I was hoping that Long Run would hit 14/1 for this and I think he is being underestimated too much here. In fairness he was poor last time after a bad mistake but in general he has been a model of consistency. I think some of the horses here have been overrated on their for and the market looks wrong in a few ways. I would actually have Bobs Worth shorter than he is, Silviniaco looks about right, but I would think Dynaste Cue Card and Tidal Bay should be longer. All this adds up to 14/1 about Long Run being great value. If Bobs Worth isn’t 100% here I fancy that long Run may be the one to beat him.

2 Points EW Long Run 14/1 Bet Victor 888 Sporting

3:35 Haydock

Silver by Nature obviously loves it around here is soft ground and proved his wellbeing at the end of last year just failing to give stones to a few decent animals at Punchestown. I went for him in that race and I see no reason not to go for him again here given the conditions. I would have expected him to be shorter that 16/1 and that looks decent value.

1 Point EW 16/1 Various.

Long Run to win tomorrow and King George 100/1.

Long run has had one poor race in his life, that was first time out this year. He is sure to be better tomorrow and if Bobs Worth isn’t at fully tuned up tomorrow he stands a very decent chance at big looking odds of 12/1. The soft ground will suit him. Given that and his record in the King George he just isn’t 100/1 to do both. It seems doubtful that Bobs Worth will turn up at Kempton.

1 Point 100/1 William hill Long Run both Betfair & King George

Paddy Power Chase 2:30

I think that despite having top weight here Finians Rainbow has been given a serious chance here of this mark if he is ready to run. Dropping 2 lbs for just having lost out to Sire de Grugy doesn’t look too bad now given the fact that he was giving him 4 lbs. He was poor previous to that last year but that run showed him getting back to decent form and a reproduction of that today could well suffice. 14/1 looks value. I’m also going with a longshot in Kumbeshwar at a huge looking price. He wasn’t ready for his first run this year but get a drop in mark for a decent run in the Haldon looks generous and he could well get into a place here.

2 Points win 14/1 Finians Rainbow various

1 Point EW Kumbeshwar 40/1 5 Places Bet365

Cheltenham 1:05

Not a lot of time to look today, but Fredo ran well over c&d last time in a similar race and bar a very bad jump at the last would have been much closer. 9/1 looks a few points too big and with the additional 2 lbs. in hand here he is bound to be in the firing line.

2 Points win 9/1 Generally

Cheltenham 1:35

Ballyadam Brook, has some decent enough form in Ireland behind some fairly classy animals, but looking at his hurdles form I think he will appreciate the better ground here. This is a tough race no doubt but as I was looking at the race I gave him a 20/1 shot and as 33/1 is available he is worth a small value bet here.

½ Point win 33/1 Betvictor Betfair