3:35 Newmarket
This looks a poor enough 2000, and I think the 2 main AOB hopes have to many negatives for the price. I do like Murrillo as a horse. He looked green last year but still has some very good form. The better ground here will certainly give him a better chance and I wouldn’t be surprised if he could get involved here. We are of course betting on that he isn’t a pure pacemaker but were getting enough of a price to factor that in.
1 Point EW 50/1 4 places paddy/betfair/lads
2:20 Newmarket
This looks a very poor renewal and on form alone Mirza has as good a chance as any of these. He is 11 but was near top form last year. He has also performed well in most of his first time out races. 25/1 is too big in a race where most of them are about the same standard. We’ll have a bet w/o the fav here as well just in case he runs to his mark.
1 Point win 25/1 Generally
1 Point win 16/1 w/o Havana grey 365/hills
2:55 Newmarket
I don’t think Defoe has really beaten anything of note and it looks entirely possible that Count Octave is a better horse. His run in a top-class Ledger last year where he didn’t really stay in the softer ground really looks good in the context of this race and I can’t have the difference in price.
2 Points win 13/2 Various

3:55 Uttoxeter
Doesn’t American just win here. He has a huge amount in hand and I don’t think he would be going here without being in form. His rider has a great strike rate for the trainer, and I just think he is far too classy for a race like this. I’m also pretty sure the good/soft will suite him.
2 Points win 5/1 generally

1:50 Newmarket
Battle of Marathon has been in fine form on the All Weather will have a bit in hand on a few of these fitness wise and is capable of a mark of 100 if everything goes right for him. 66/1 is worth the risk
1 Point EW 66/1 various

2000 Guineas Ante Post

I think U S Navy Flag was the best 2 year old last year. His win in the Dewhurst was outstanding and it’s an easy pick to go for him at 20/1 for the 2000. The ground will more than likely be good, we can easily forget his seasonal opener on heavy ground and even that will put him right for the big day. In fact I think he is a horse that needs to be ready early to take advantage of his experience over other less experienced colts. 20/1 is massive.

2 Points win 20/1 paddy/sky/betfair/boyles

Sandown 3:35

I can’t split the 2 Tizzard runners Theatre Guide and Royal Vacation here. They have both had light a season, with a fair amount of disappointment, but I’m guessing that today’s race may well be the target for both. The stable is in fine form and it looks reasonable to me that both will get involved here at huge prices.

1 Point EW 33/1 365 5 places ¼ Theatre Guide and Royal Vacation

Punchestown 5:35
Abbyssial wasn’t put into the race at all last time out and I just get the feeling he will run a lot better today. He has plenty of class and ran well after a very long break first time out this year. This is a pure gut feeling selection at 50/1
1 Point EW 50/1 6 places Paddy

Punchestown 3:50

Apples Jade looks a near certain winner here, so I’m going with one at a big price in the without market. Asthuria looks significantly underestimated here. She has run well here before and wasn’t far behind Benie Des Dieux when they met over fences. She has run already this week but that was a very good run behind Footpad and it seems to me that she is in very good form. If she can run to form again in a week she won’t be too far away here at 33/1 w/o the fav is a huge price.

2 Points EW 33/1 w/o FAV paddy 25/1 w/o fav generally.

3:10 Punchestown
Last year’s race looked much stronger than this renewal and Heron Heights was a very good 3rd of 2lbs higher. He has had just 1 run this year when midfield around Leopardstown and I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the plan and he will improve significantly. 25/1 is certainly value
1 Point EW 25/1 4 places Paddy

Punchestown 5:30

Samcro’s form simply doesn’t really stand up to any great degree. This first horse he beat to win a race afterwards was Black Ops just about winning a sub-standard Grade 1 at Aintree. No real explanation is needed here as Melon is just too big for what he has done already. The Champion Hurdle could hardly have worked out any better and 10/3 is far too big. I’m going to add in a 1 pt place lay on Samcro as well as it follows that he is far too short. Don’t  get me wrong he may well be a very likely winner, its just the odds are wrong by a huge margin on known form

3 Points win Melon 10/3 betfair/paddy and others  

1 Point Lay Liability at 1.12 -1.15 Betfair.

4:20 Punch
Ask Nile, has a fair bit of form that would suggest he is capable of getting involved here at a huge price. He ran better than his finishing position indicates last time out after a break and has a big turnaround in weights with the winner. 33/1 with 5 places looks a bit of value
1 Point EW 33/1 6 place’s Sky 5 places paddy/betfair/boyles and others

Last Minute Selection: Punch 6:40

On The Fringe has been gradually improving and this longer trip on soft ground will suit 16/1 is value

1 Point win 16/1 betfair/Paddy/Exchanges

Punchestown 6:40
There is a fair few cliff horses of mine in this race but Viconte Du Noyer stands out here as the value on his 2nd last year I the same race with a very similar looking preparation. He finished his race well last year of a higher mark and surly he’ll go close enough again this year. There stable is back in form and 25/1 is certainly value.
1 Point EW 25/1 4 places 365, 20/1 5 places Paddy & sky
Punchestown 5:30
This doesn’t look a deep race and is full of horses that might struggle after their last runs. However although I’m going for another probably disappointing horse in general he is at least priced to make the risk worthwhile. There isn’t a hell of a lot between Alpha Des Obeaux and a lot of these behind the favorite, and I think he travelled like he was getting back to form last time in the National, before he fell at the Chair. The form of him clonmel oil win this year and his second to Total Recall earlier this year puts him in the frame here and he may well be more of a 25/1 shot than the 50/1 available.
1 Point EW 50/1 Paddy/Betfair

Punchestown 5:30
Fairly easy pick here in a race I hope Douvan wins, Special Tiara was better than ever last year but hasn’t been as good so far this year on soft ground in every run. He will definitely be better today with conditions in his favour. There is enough doubt about the top of the market here to make the 28/1 available about him look very big. I think he goes off at best 16/1 possibly shorter so we’ll take the value now.
1 Point EW 28/1 paddy / betfair 25/1 boyles
Punchestown 4:55
We’ve missed the 33/1 but I’m not going to change my mind now. Housesofparliment will certainly appreciate the better ground and back here after a break he could well get involved. His form as a novice reads well for a horse of this mark and should the expected improvement come he won’t be far away. He jumps well enough as well. I’m hoping he goes from the front here.
1 Point ew 25/1 6 places paddy/sky

Punchestown 6:40
I’ve been saying all year that there isn’t much between Monalee and Rathvinden and we’ve a bit unlucky with Rathvinden being brought down. I’m not going to change my mind here given on collateral form, his win in the 4 miler could well be better than Monalee’s 2nd in the rsa. He should also be suited by the drop in trip and good ground. 11/1 is too big
1 Point win 11/1 Generally

Ayr 4:05
I’ve had West Approach on my mind for this all week, and I just haven’t been able to talk myself out of it. He looks a much better horse last time out in the JLT with much better jumping, and he really should improve for a big step up in trip. He looked to be going flat out at Cheltenham and this should be more his style. There really isn’t a lot between him and the likes of Ballyoptic who is a far shorted price. The stable is really getting into form as well so it’s a lot of positives for a 40/1 shot.
2 Points EW 40/1 6 places paddy/sky
In addition Beware the Bear looks a near certainty to get placed if he gets around here and 25/1 with 6 places giving 5/1 to place is far too big. This trip should be exactly what he wants and he can perform of this mark.
2 Points EW 25/1 6 places paddy/lads/sky

Newbury 3:45

Gabrials record in big field handicaps is remarkable really for a horse that is always underestimated . He was as good as ever in the Lincoln and at 33/1 with 5 places here he just had to be bet.

2 points ew 33/1 6 places sky 5 places generally .

I think it’s worthwhile going for a small ew double on Gabriel and Beware the Bear due to their place chances being very good .

1 point ew double beware the bear & Gabriel

Cheltenham 3:15
Midnight Jazz looks to be underestimated here. She ran well in the Grade 1 mares hurdle and could be a few pounds well in here of a mark she was won of before. She looks a better horse on decent ground judging by her runs last year as well and I think she is around a 12/1 shot so the 20/1 on offer has to be taken.
1 Point win 20/1 365 22/1 sporting 18/1 various

Cheltenham 2:40

I spent a fair bit of the build up to Cheltenham assuming Traffic Fluide would win a handicap and it didn’t work out. Fear of missing out is necessitating a bet here. He has been reduced again in mark and on better ground he should be able to stay the trip here. He had a non-too impressive win in a novice hurdle since, but I’m hopeful that will have got him right for this.

2 Points win 14/1 365/hills 12/1 elsewhere

Fairyhouse 5:50

Abbyssial could easily come back to form here over the right trip. He looked decent after a long break from racing in the Redmills hurdle in gorwan, and that race could hardly have worked out better. He did bomb out on his second run back at Cheltenham where he was too keen and possibly bounced. We can easily give him another shout here at a huge price in a funny looking race where I don’t fancy many. If his 7lbs claimer can ride he will get competitive of his weight today. 33/1 looks huge

Points EW 5 places Paddy/Betfair/Sky

Newmarket 5:55

Move in time shouldn’t be far away here and i wasn’t expecting to be a decent price after his last eye-catching run. He can perform of this mark

1 Point win 12/1 hills/betfair/paddy