Aintree 3:00

Bears Affair appeals here at a decent looking price. He loves it around here has a great record fresh and I don’t think the jockey booking mean anything with Nicky’s other runner as Freddie generally rides him and his 5lbs will be handy for the top weight.  He is well capable of this mark and although a bit further wouldn’t go astray he has performed here over this trip a few times with great credit.

2 Points win 8/1 Generally 17/2 Betway if you can get on

This was a poor enough run and he wasn’t ready

Aintree 3:30

This looks a very tight race and I have to admit I was humming and hawing about Buywise last night without pulling the trigger. He is up against a few really top class horses and if any of those are in form ready for this 11/2 may not be big enough. I’m going to go a bit left of field a go for an outsider in Brave Sparticus at a very big price. He beat a very good yardstick in Baby Mix with any amount in hard in the summer place and although he has obviously risen in the weights that performance deserved it. This track and good ground could make him hard to catch in a nice low weight if he gets in a similar rhythm as that run. His last couple can be ignored easily as he was probably getting fit for this race. He is 20/1 in a couple of places now as that the signal to have a bet.

1 Point win 20/1 VC/Paddy

He ran a great race to be 4th but there is a decent race in him of this mark.

Aintree 2:30

Another decent race and here I like the outsider of the field Mwaleshi at a big price. He has plenty of decent form but looks of a nice mark here. IF he is ever to get 3 miles it will be around here on decent ground and he also has a decent record fresh. 18/1 makes taking the chance worthwhile.

1 Point win 18/1 365/hill/Betfair

Backed into 9/1 and travelled well but didn’t stay, may be worth another bet over a shorter trip next time

Leopardstown 3:20

Toe The line is far too consistent to be let of here at 20/1. He was a fast finishing 4^th int ehEbor and followed that up with a few very good performances 102 with a 5lbs claimer on makes him a very good proposition at 20/1 with 5 places.

1 Point EW 20/1 5 places 365 18/1 5 places betfair

Ran a great race to be in with a  chance 2 out but just faded into 6th and we just missed out  on the  EW payoff.

Doncaster 3:10

Oasis Fantasy has been tipped up and backed by every man and his dog over the last 6 months without cashing in. He is in here today with what looks a decent chance on form and the step back in trip might just suit him judging by his last 2 runs. For the first time in a while he is a decent price and this race doesn’t look to be as strong as some of the earlier season ones. I’m going to buck the trend and select him when no-one else will be. 14/1 might just be value in this race.

1 Point win 14/1 Generally 365/vc/hills and others

Was backed into 8/1 and traveled well but had nothing in the finish for another disappointing run

3:00 Newbury

David Livingstone was a horse with a lot of potential with AOB in Ireland and although he was disappointing last time out my gut is he will be a lot better here today. He is down to a nice mark and this race doesn’t look to have a lot of standouts. 11/1 might look decent value come the off.

1 Point win 11/1 Generally 12/1 with 888/32 if you can get on there

Ran well to be 3rd and probably not really suited by the softer than anticipated going, but this horse will be winning a big handicap next year

Cheltenham 2:10

There are few in this who will be minding their marks for March id imagine and it looks a very tight race. I’m afraid pricewise may have got the best value here with Turn Over Sivola at 14/1 but I wouldn’t be as interested in him at the 8/1 now. I’m drawn to Dunraven Storm who has won around here and although he was disappointing last year after 2 very good wins early in the season he may well be ready to race to day after a disappointing run first time out this year of ground probably too fast for him. I’ll have a small bet at 12/1 here

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

Another good performance in 3rd and he made the anticipated improvement over his seasonal reappearance 

 Cheltenham 3:20

I’ve ended up here eliminating every horse in the field, so I’ve gone for a bit of youth and a horse with a bit of upward curve left in him yet. Whats Happening won well here at the end of last year but looks on a still workable mark judging by some of his novice form. He looks to have landed in a good opportunity here at a half decent price of 12/1. Champion Court could be the main danger as he is in rude health at the moment.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

Looked to be travelling well all the way and although he looked to be in trouble coming to the last he absolutely flew at the finish to pass everything. Very good course winner now and one to be watching for the festival as liking the stiff finish is a big plus.

Doncaster 2:35

Nothing has really stood out here in what is normally my type of race but I’ll have a few big price darts as that’s end of the market is where the value is here. Cordial has one piece of form on soft ground in Ireland that would put her in with a shot here at a huge price. The ground will have a bit of ease in it today and for her first run in a handicap in a while 66/1 looks a small gamble worth taking. In addition Kimberella will probably pop up again of this mark at some stage and there was a bit to like about his last run. He can be competitive in these types of races if everything goes his way and 28/1 looks value.

½ Point win Cordial 66/1 Generally

1 Point win Kimberella 28/1 Generally

Cordial actually caught the eye a bit after a slow start and Kimberella ran well without getting near the front. I think there is a race in both shortly.

Cheltenham 5:40

Savello is a very solid 150 rated chaser who is in form and fit from a couple of good summer runs. If he is going to be trying here he should be very hard to beat having gone to a great handler on a very good hurdles mark.. His last hurdles run was in the most competitive 2 mile hurdle in Ireland when 4^th and has also won the most competitive 2 miles chase around here the Grand Annual in the past. There is a bit of a danger they won’t want to compromise his hurdles mark here but I just can’t let him go without a bet. He is miles clear of these on form. 11/2 Is bigger than I expect him to go off.

2 Points win 11/2 sky/vc/lads

Savello ran well to be 3rd, and my suspicion is that he will have a big handicap hurdle target this season and is capable of winning one of this mark

Doncaster 3:10                      

No prize’s for guessing who I’ll be going with here. Hawkeyethenoo has been ready to win for a while now without getting any luck in running of finding the right race. He caught eye last time out in the Silver Cup when not getting any kind of a run and coming from way to far back to be 8^th.  He has the 5lbs claimer on that got him to 3^rd in the Victoria Cup earlier this year and off a 2lbs lower mark. 25/1 is massive and anything like 20/1 is great value.

To use a poker term I’m all –in. The Cliff Awaits

2 Points EW 25/1 Skybet/Betfair 22/1 elsewhere

Hawkeyethenoo was never travelling at all for a huge disappointment,i’m afraid the ship may have sailed for him this year.

Dundalk 8:05

Take Cover looks a fair way clear of anything here. He has been in very good form lately apart from a  slightly below par run in the Abbey. He is a Group 1 class horse and has some decent All-Weather form. The 2yo will need to be very good to overhaul him even with the weight advantage. 5/1 with Coral is a silly price any of the 4/1 elsewhere is also fine value.

2 Points win 5/1 Coral, 4/1 Elsewhere

A lovely win from this super consistent horse to save a day i had a huge amount of hope for. I simply cant understand how anyone could have a 2yo to beat these Group 1 class sprinters. 

Limerick 3:45

Indevan showed considerable improvement last time out at Gowran in a very good race and should be suited by this step up in trip on decent ground. His jumping was a bit better last time as well and if he can put it all together today 33/1 is going to look a big price as he is a strong traveller.

In addition Dare to Endeavour travelled well for a lot of the race last time just getting outpaced after a poor jump 4 out last time out.  He stayed on really well that time and should do the same here making his place chance very strong. This makes the 33/1 again look big.

1 Point EW Indevan 33/1 sky/paddy/hills/coral/betway

1 Point EW Dare to Endeavour 33/1 365/sporting/Betfair

Both horses were backed into 20/1 and both got badly interfered with at the 4th fence and we a long way out the back after that

4:05 Curragh

Majenta interests me here at a huge price. She was a very good 4^th in this 2 years ago of a much higher mark and has a few runs this year that look like a return to form. She won here earlier this year of around this mark in a race that has worked out well . She has run last twice on probably unsuitable very fast ground over shorter trips and this test today should bring out the best in her. 40/1 with 5 places is the one to go for and looks great value

1 Point EW 40/1 5 places 365 33/1 5 places elsewhere.

Didnt Stay after coming with a promising looking run

Long Shot Saturday

York 4:35

Rosairlie has 2 ways of running, very good and very bad. In general her good runs have come on softer ground and also after a poor enough run. She hasn’t seen soft since her good win earlier this year at Ripon and hopefully its stays soft for her in this race tomorrow. We can ignore her 2 runs since on good ground going by her profile and 33/1 looks a decent bit of value despite her being possibly a pound or two higher than ideal.

1 Point win 33/1 Bet365 and 10Bet

Got Backed into 20/1 but was out the back and never got on terms

3:50 Newmaket

Communicator had a poor enough go over hurdles for Jonjo O’Neill but is back here with his former trainer. He ran well in this last year and is certainly on a workable mark. He showed up well last time out a Chester and after a very light season he could well have an advantage over a lot of the field here. He is drawn high but it’s a 2 mile race and I’m going to ignore that with his price. He has plenty of good enough form over this trip to get involved here tomorrow.

1 Point EW 50/1 5 places Generally

Ran a very decent race just getting run out of the places near the line

York 3:25

I will of course be going with cliff horse Robot Boy here. He looks ready to win and is dropping down in mark nicely. It’s a tough race but he certainly has a chance. He would need to get away better this time. He has a touch of class and plenty of his form this year makes this mark and price look a good combination.

1 Point win 20/1 365/sky/paddy/boyles and others

Unbelievably poor, finished last after being well backed.

I’m also going with another big price dart here in Foxtrot Romeo. He is down to a well workable mark and is in the right hands to turn things around shortly. He Showed up well last time out in the Silver Cup and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him involved in the finish here at a big looking 25/1

1 Point win 25/1 Generally

Never got into the stalls so a Non-Runner

3:50 Newmaket

I liked the look of Aussie Reigns yesterday at an outrageous price and now that it’s got into my head I can’t not have a tiny bet just in case at a really silly price on Betfair. He has a touch of class and a few bits of form this year that could make the mark here with the  help of a 5lbs claimer just about feasible enough to have a minimum bet at the over 200 on betfair. I was going for a larger EW bet but I’m not sure of the value of that so a small betfair bet will suffice

½ Point win Betfair 230 Betfair

Ran well enough but couldn’t sustain effort

My other main selection here is Noble Silk he was a big eye-catcher for us last time out when we were on at a big price and he was a superb 4^th when coming up against a couple of Group Horses in the Ascot Stakes this year. If he can kick on anything like the other horses involved in that race he will be very close here. I said to myself yesterday that 25/1 would be the price I’d be taking interest in and he is available at that with a few bookies there now.

1 Point win 25/1 888/hills/Betfair

Very disappointing didn’t stay

York 2:15

David Livingstone is a horse I had a lot of time for  at Aidan O’Briens and despite these horses in generally not having much of a record when moved on he looked good on his first run back in a very good field and a mark of 102 looks well with his grasp. This field has a weak enough look to it and he could easily be too good for these. At a price of 10/1 he certainly looks a bit of value if he can some on at all from that first run.

1 Point win 10/1 888/lads/hills/betfair

Was backed into 7/1 but got bumped 2 out and never a factor after that. He wasnt going well enough anyway

y

Prix de lArc De Triomphe

I’ve been looking at this race all week and although I’ll be cheering Treve home having tipped her up for 3 points win last year at 10/1, I think Tapestry is the forgotten horse here. She has run only once this season and if she has the normal ballydoyle improvement after that run she will be right in the firing line here is what looks a very good Arc but not one with huge depth after the top 3. She has a decent draw compared to others a lot shorter in the betting and let’s not forget at her best last year she beat Tagrooda who was 3^rd last year. Tapestry’s form did die off at the end of the year but if she has had this race in mind 33/1 looks huge.

1 Point EW 33/1 EW Generally

Never really looked like having a chance

Prix de lAbbaye de Longchamp 3:40

It’s pretty clear that almost anything can happen in this race, and as much as I’ll be shouting Sole Power on there is far too much luck involved to be taking a short price about anything here. What looks the most overpriced horse here is Rangali. He was 2^nd in this last year on similar ground and although he hasn’t been firing this year he may well have this as his target for the year and at 28/1 he looks value. I’ve been hoping someone would go 28/1 and 4 places and Bet365 have just done that. I’d be taking 25/1 as well 4 places.

1 Point EW 28/1 4 Places Bet365

Just got collared on the line for a great run again in this race. Super price but so close yet again to a big win.

Prix de la Foret

G Force was a bit of an eye catcher in the Sprint Cup coming from way of the pace to finish 4^th and he looks well overprice here. There is a huge possibility that Limato is just a fair way clear but it’s hard to be interested in that price. 16/1 is a nice price but perhaps it would be better to steer clear of Limato and go for 9/1 in the race without.  I would have him with a very solid chance in that race and 9/1 with ladborkes or 8/1 with Bet365 is well worth a bet

1 Point win G Force w/o Limato Ladbrokes 9/1

He got a silly ride along with Limato where both horses were miles to far back early on. G Force never looked like getting into it but in fairness to Limato he remarkably got up to 2nd from there.

Prix de lAbbaye de Longchamp 3:40

I made the mistake of changing my mind and not picking one yesterday that cost me (less said about that the better), so I’m going to have small bet here on Mirza at a huge price. He ran well in this last year without getting any breaks and doesn’t need to have much of a case made to justify a small bet at 50/1. He is capable on his day of getting involved here and id be throwing something trough the TV if he won and id changed my mind and didn’t put up a min bet.

½ Point win 50/1 Generally.

Mirza ran really well at a huge price to be ring in there near the places

3:45 Ascot

Ascot is usually a course specialist’s track and at a big price here Empire Storm fits the bill. He was very good twice here last year at the end of the season including a 2^nd in this race of only a couple of pounds less than tomorrow. He had a good couple of races in Meyden but then probably showed the effects of that only coming back lately in a listed race at Goodwood and needing the race. He will hopefully be ready to race here given his good course form and as the outsider of the field at 33/1 he looks great value.

1 Point EW 33/1 365/boyles/lads/vc/Betfair.

Great Run by this one he was travelling really well and really enhanced his Ascot Rep with a very good 3rd

My Second dart here is Tanzeel. He looked a sprinter going places like a lot of others in his yard when winning the Sky Bet Dash with a fair bit in hand earlier this year but has been a disappointment since in 2 races. He has valid excuses for both one a step too far on softer ground and the other in the Ayr Gold Cup he came down with only 1 horse on the wrong side completely never having a chance. He could well get back to form here and has had a light season compared to most , at 16/1 he looks a nice bit of value to fulfil the promise of earlier.

1 Point win 16/1 VC/888/hills

Never in the hunt here

Ascot 4:55

Kimberella has been in good form this year and although he was poor enough last time out this race could suit his front running sytle. He is down to below the mark of a very good 2^nd at Ripon and 20/1 looks the value in this race.

1 Point win 20/1 tote/fred/vc

We knew our fate straight away as he broke slowly and needs to be in front to win these

Epson 5:25

Ganymede caught the eye last time out in a better race than this when on the wrong side at Ascot. He is below  his last winning mark and has a very good 3lbs claimer on today that could put him right in the firing line if he is getting back to form at all. 33/1 is too big in this race. I’ll go for EW here as his chance of placing here looks above average for a 33/1 shot.

1 Point EW 33/1 VC/Stan/Hills

This Horse was backed into 14/1 but was left at the start and although finishing well never got into that race after the start

Epson 3:45

Burano has won the last twice he has got down to this mark and he ran better than his final placing suggested on his last run at Newbury in a much better race than this. I think he stands a great chance here of this mark and really can’t be far away at a decent looking 12/1

1 Point win 12/1 365/VC/Coral and others

Unfortunately Burano didn’t get near the lead and somewhat sulked after that which can happen with him. He was backed into 8/1. Hell be winning soon but might just be an in play bet once he get a lead early or is near it.

Curragh 5:35

I think Shu Lewis is being underestimated here. She has run well fresh nearly every time and her form puts her right in there with a shout here. The favourite may well be avoided as she could have a fair bit in hand here but bet365 have a very good 8/1 without her and this looks the wrong price by a few points at least. Id actually be happy with the 6/1 available elsewhere in this mark as well.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/curragh/17:35/w-o-silwana

1 Point win 8/1 Shu Lewis W/O Silwana

 She ran a great race to be a close 3rd behind the fav so we just failed to get our bet up.

We’ve gone up 7 points from the previous stats update now to +287 for the year. A poor yesterday killed the figures a bit, and we are possibly going into a difficult enough month or two between the seasons. Stakes will be reduced for most bets until the Hennessy as that’s the most profitable period for the site almost every year between Hennessy and Cheltenham.

The overall Year results are obviously very good and in the last month we had a number of big priced close calls, but thankfully Sole Power and Go Far won at decent prices to keep us on the right track.

What cost us last month in particular is EW bets. Not enough of those got placed and its getting real tempting to reduce those even further.