Deauville 3:10

A quick look at the form of this race makes Ribbons looks exceptional value considering she was a neck behind Legatissmo trying to give her nearly a stone in Ireland and also had Pleascach behind. 3/1 does on the face of it look like a great price but there is a serious chance that the ground here will be very soft and in that case the value lies with Madame Chiang. She was only 1 ½ lengths behind ribbons in the Middleton on her seasonal debut on unsuitable good ground and ran about as well as could be expected in the King George after that. Her soft ground record is 111 and 4^th in the King George. She is undoubtedly a much better horse on soft and one look at her win last year in the Ascot Group 1 on Soft Ground will demonstrate her liking for soft ground. If there is a negative its 10 furlongs is a bit on the short side but I’m willing to take that risk at 8/1.

1 Point win 8/1 Various /365/VC/Stan

If you said at the Start of the meeting we’d be up by 32 points on the week id have snapped your hand off but when your up 50 points after 2 races with a steady slide after that it never seems the same. Still Sense will prevail and 32 points is a huge result and keeps us well on target for the best year ever.

The big disappointment for me was Pearl Secret. I had some serious confidence in this horse but we knew our fate before he left the gate when he was sweating far too much and much too highly strung to be effective. He still ran decent enough having being way to far back but perhaps another day with him.

2:35 York

Havisham has been running well in very decent staying handicaps this year without winning. The main reason I’m interested here is over this trip on the softish ground today he will certainly stay the trip looking at his run on soft over 2miles in a good Ascot Handicap 2 runs ago. He was a big disappointment last time out which is why he is now a big price for this but if we can forgive him that run he is weighted to get involved here with a 5lbs claimer on today. His placing chance looks very decent to me for a 33/1 shot and with a couple of bookies going the 5 places that the bet to make.

1 Point EW 33/1 5 Places Hills

3:45 York

The more I look at the conditions of this race the more I keep coming back to Fields of Athenry. This horse looks a real stayer not just in the making but already. Rated 119 now (which may be a bit on the big side) with all the allowance’s he will be carrying only  9:03 with his very decent 5lbs claimers allowance. I’ve seen this type of horse been much shorter for these handicaps before and I think he should be a very solid favourite. The wide draw isn’t ideal but he may well have a fair bit in hand so hopefully it won’t be a deal breaker. There is a lot of very decent Handicappers with a NH background at the top of the betting and I’ll be cheering on Wicklow Brave if he wins, but they don’t look value at all here. 9/1 looks a very fair price and I’m pretty sure he will go of around the 6 mark at best.

2 Points win 9/1 888/32 8/1 generally

My other selection here is at the other end of the market John Reel has been running well in all the big staying handicaps this year without winning but this trip on softer ground may be about ideal for him and he has the advantage today of a very good 5lbs claimer on which might get him in the picture. He has soft ground form over hurdles and 66/1 with 5 places given his fairly consistent profile and style of running up with the pace he stands a very decent chance of placing here.

1 Point EW 66/1 5 Places totesport/coral/betfair

York 4:55

Hanseatic tics a couple of boxes for me in this race. He was a very decent looking horse a couple of years ago over 10 furlongs but only came back after over 2 years off lately. He has run twice over what is obviously too short a trip, hopefully with a race like this in mind. Hopefully over the right trip he will come back to life here at a huge price. 33/1 looks worth the risk

1 Point EW 33/1 VC/PP/Lads/Hills

Sandown 3:25

Noble Storm has been gradually improving this year all the while dropping to a career low mark here. He also has a3lbs claimer on today and with the drop in class he may well be difficult to catch here.  12/1 looks a decent bet in this race with Chilworth Icon the obvious danger.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

York 3:05

Having gone through this field it looks to me as if the value lies with Intransigent. His form with cut in the ground is very good and he hasn’t had that at all this year. Considering he won a Big Ascot Handicap on Soft ground of a mark of 104 at the end of last year he should be right in the mix here and especially if it rains any more. I think he will go off shorter than his current 16/1 and it looks about 4-6 points too big.

1 Point win 16/1 VC/Coral/Betfair

York 3:40

There is a strong possibility that Pearl Secret will get what he has always needed here tomorrow, a 5 Furlong Group1 with Cut in the ground. His run in the Kings Stand was his best yet and considering where he came from it was out of the top drawer. He can easily be forgiven his poor enough run 4 days later and has surly been readied for a cut at this race. 20/1 is superb value  and with the 4 places and his almost assured fast finish he is also value to place.

2 Points EW 20/1 Bet365/Ladbrokes

With a view to possible softer ground I’m going to have a small cut at a huge priced horse that can act on it just in case. Justice Day as had a couple of interesting runs lately and if it comes up soft at all he may well outrun his 100/1 price.

1 Point win 100/1 VC/PP

York 1:55

I had a look at this race yesterday and settled on What about Carlo, who impressed me on his last run when I selected him after a period in the doldrums. I wasn’t sure that he was brilliant value at 20/1 but I’ve convinced myself that he can get involved in this off a good mark and a step up in trip which looks like it will suit him. He travelled well last time but didn’t get much of a run until it was too late. That run showed he was possibly back on an up curve. He is 22/1 this morning and that is a decent price for a possibly improving 4yo.

1 Point win 22/1 Sporting/Betway/Betfair

3:05 York

I’m afraid my eyes are drawn somewhat unsurprisingly down to the bottom of the betting for this race.  I’ll go through my thought process for the laugh

• Blink Method (for anyone that’s read the book ) Mont Ras big price
• Couple of zeros after a long layoff, never worried me before
• David O’Meara big plus
• 7lbs claimer on of a decent mark, getting better
• Course form . Tick
• Very good strike Rate. Tick

This horse has looked in need of his 2 runs so far but with normal improvement and of his new mark with an additional 7lbs claimer on he can get competitive at a huge price.

With the possibility of Soft ground here tomorrow I’m going to add Penitent at a big price. He has been a bit of an underachiever this year but has run well when there is a bit of cut in the ground. His overall form is miles better on soft and of this mark (which is his lowest ever) he may well be able to get involved at a big looking 25/1. His general profile doesn’t look like a value EW bet and I’ll go for win only

1 Point win Mont Ras  33/1 VC/Coral/Betfair

1 Point win Penitent 25/1 Generally

3:40 York

Covert Love probably got the run of the race in the Irish oaks and I think there may not be a lot between her and Curvy this time. Curvy has been very solid all year and had to start chasing too early in that race which resulted in her getting only 3^rd.  She looks the most likely winner and the value in this race at 7.8 on Betfair. I would think she is more of a 4/1 shot here.

1 Point win 7.8 Curvy Betfair

Caspian Prince Won for us at 33/1 and Storm the Stars really put the seal on it with a win at 4/1 to cap one of the best days ever for the site.

York 1:55

Caspian Prince is 3 lbs lower here than a very decent 5^th in a top Irish 5 Furlong Handicap in June. He was biting off more than he could chew last time in the Group 2 at Goodwood, but is back in a handicap here. He looks to me to be on the way back to form after early season Mayden hangover which is understandable. 33/1 with 5  places looks a very decent price for a horse with very solid handicap form around this mark. Mass Rally has a decent enough record here and is also off a mark he can perform off. He needs everything to go right in order for him to get involved and is worth the risk at a decent looking 20/1.

1 Point EW 33/1 Caspian Prince 5 Places Betfair

1 Point win Mass Rally 20/1 Generally

3:05 York

Storm the Stars should be a short price favourite for this in my opinion. He has absolutely solid Group 1 form and should be about 2/1 for this. The Newcomer Tashaar could well be a treat but I fancy him to beat all the AOB runners just as he has done before. 4/1 or 7/2 is too big to ignore

2 Points win 4/1 Stan James 7/2 Elsewhere

Kempton 4:15

Go Far ran a super race for us 2 weeks ago at Goodwood when a very close 3^rd behind a handicap good thing. His general profile up to his poor runs earlier this year had been very consistent and given that he is back in form now it would be no surprise that he would continue in that vein. He won on the AW last the end of last year off 4lbs higher than he is today and looks as if the step up to 7 furlongs won’t pose any problems. 14/1 is a fair bit bigger than I would have expected given his latest run in a much better race.

1 Point win 14/1 Skybet 12/1 Elsewhere

Southwell 3:30

A Cor Et A Cri is a previous selection of mine, who travels well but perhaps doesn’t finish out his races well. I think the drop in trip here will suit and I he can recapture even part of his French form over this trip he could well be a bit above this class. I don’t think Harry Fry will often run a horse so quickly after a poor run without good reason and my gut here is that he will improve today. He was well backed last time out and I suspect he will be backed again here . 6/1 in this race looks a bit of value

1 Point win 6/1 Sky/888/Stan

Less said about that selection the better

Mubtaghaa stuck his neck out for a nice win at 12/1

Field of Dream ran a great race to be placed at 33/1 and Tatlisue also placed for a decent day all round. Although neither of these were advised at EW, they were certainly value at the prices.