York 4:00

I’m going to go with a couple of horse that have been coming down the weights but have showed lately that a return might not be far off. Ballesteros is now on a winnable mark well below his last winning mark but is just beginning to show that he may be able to win soon judging by his last run or 2. Free Zone is very similar and has showed improvement lately. I’m going to back both with minimum stakes for and interest in this good 5 furlong sprint. With these sprinters it’s a matter of timing to get the first good run at the time of a decent price.

½ Point win Ballesteros 20/1 Ladbrokes

½ Point win Free Zone 16/1 Lads/Betfair/VC

Newmarket 3:45

Burnt Sugar could easily outrun his huge odds here. He hasn’t had much luck in running a few times this year but the form of his 5th at Ascot earlier this year could not have worked out any better. He can perform of this mark and with a good 5lbs claimer on today 40/1 seems far to big .

1 point Ew 40/1 various 

Ascot 4:10

Tamayuz star looks too big a price here. He has performed well in decent races off a much higher mark and started this year running well of this mark . He was poor enough last time out but didn’t get the run of the race . Decent 3 lbs claimer on today and in this race from a trainer who can train a winner here 20/1 looks too big.

1 point win 20/1 generally ..

York 3:25

Blue Huzzar might just have found s workable mark here . I watched his last run at Ascot after putting him up at a huge price and looking back on it he was never put in the race and stayed on nicely in a very tough race. He has a good 3 lbs claimer on today and is due to a very nice mark on his old form . He is worth a risk.

1 point Ew 33/1 generally 

Doncaster 5:10

Hoofalong looks to one to be on here. He gave the impression he was about to strike 2 runs ago in a much better contest than this and was heavily backed last time out but unseated just after the start. Off this mark in this poor enough race which has got a bit poorer after a few non-runners 6/1 looks value. I wouldn’t be surprised if he started on around the 7/2 mark.

2 Points win 6/1 365/VC/Betfair

Epson 8:50                              

Swiss Cross has been expect to come good a few times lately but has disappointed on most occasion’s. His record here though is very decent and a repeat of his run over c&d in June in a much stronger contest would be enough to win here off 4lbs lower. He has disappointed a few times since but he’ll be better here. 8/1 is bigger than I expected him to be and worth a bet.

1 Point win 8/1 365/VC

Newmarket 3:15

Hillstar is probably the best horse in this race on known form and if he can improve from his fairly decent seasonal reappearance at Ascot he may well do what he should do and win this. He has been abandoned by Ryan Moore but that has resulted in the bit of value and given his super consistent runs last year 13/2 looks value. The favourite has to step up a lot to be beating all of these decent group horses.

1 Point win 13/2 Generally

All our runners yesterday ran with credit particually Munaaser who just failed to win at 20/1.

Limerick 4:50

Bishops Road travelled better than anything last time out and I think the slightly shorter trip here in a weaker race could make him hard to beat here despite giving weight to the field. He will need to win this to get into the Galway Plate. Some of his form reads very well in the context of this type of race and I thought he would be a solid favourite here. 7/1 with Ladbrokes is a standout price.

2 Points win 7/1 Ladbrokes

Ayr 4:10

Pintura may not have his ideal softer conditions here, but with the ground just gone from g/soft to good he should still be able to act on that. He was poor on proper firm ground last time out but showed that a return to form was possible on his seasonal reappearance when 2nd over c&d on good ground . G Lee is a eye-catching booking and the trainer has had a couple of winners lately. 16/1 looks a few points too big and worth a small bet.

1 Point win 16/1 VC/Stan/Hills/Betfair

Haydock 2:50 Old Newton Cup

This looks a tough race with very little between lots of the participants. In some respects is don’t fancy anything to win but in looking for value Great Hall appeals at a decent price. He had a good seasonal reappearance and if he builds on that run he should get competitive here where he has in fact a decent record in 2 runs here. He is relatively lightly raced for a 5yo and could still have a bit of improvement in him. 16/1 looks a decent price.

1 Point win 16/1 boyles/VC/365/Lads

Sandown 2:35

Baltic Knight sticks out here at a very big price. He has been running well in decent races an looks well worth his mark at the moment. He also has a great record in the few handicaps he has contested with a record of 112 is 3 races. He actually won of 1lb higher than this mark last year and in my mind is no 33/1 shot here. He does have a negative of a poor enough draw but I’m hopeful class will out here and he can get involved in the finish.

1 Point EW 33/1 VC/Coral

Beverly 3:00

Money Team really caught the eye last time when he ran well without getting the breaks in a much tougher race than this. He was my selection that time and although following up with sprinters can be the quick way to the poorhouse he looks ready to pounce. 10/1 looks a bit of value here, I’m fairly certain he will go off at 7/1 or less.

1 Point win 10/1 Generally

Sandown 2:00

Stepper Point is an old favourite of mine, and I think he is being overlooked here because of things not going his way in the Kings Stand. He does have a few possibly very good 3yo’s to face here that could well be anything but with Mecca’s Angel now a non-runner I think he is superb value against a field of unknown quantities and horses that he has beaten regularly enough. 12/1 seems way to big a price for him even given his slightly inconsistent form, which in fairness is common enough in these 5 furlong sprints where everything has to come right to win.

1 Point win 12/1 sky/vc/lads

Sandown 2:35

Now that Baltic Knight is a nonrunner, I’m going to go with my second choice here in Munaaser. He looked to be on an upward curve at the end of last year culminating with a very good 2nd to a top horse in GM Hopkins . He has been poor this year but I’m assuming that he will start to improve soon and 20/1 looks a risk worth taking..

1pt win 20/1 generally.

Epson 7:25

Looking back through Geological‘s form reveals that all his good runs at the end of last year have worked out really well; with every horse he was involved in a finish with going up in mark afterwards and performing. He came back here last month and travelled well but ran out of steam which was understandable on his seasonal reappearance and the trip was over 7 furlongs which was probably too far. He is back over 6 furlongs here and if he can repeat his improvement at the end of last year he shouldn’t be far away here. This does look a fairly tough race with a few in it that could come back to form of a good mark, but 12/1 about the selection seems decent value.

1 Point win 12/1 Sky/Hills/Betway

Tipperary 8:30

My record in these kinds of races is pretty shoddy to say the least but there is a couple in here on very low mark that probably has a race like this in them at some stage. I’m going to go with a trainer and jockey that haven’t had a winner yet this year, but on his last run Cape Explorer might just be about to get into some kind of half decent form, which would be enough to get involved here of this mark. He was a very decent mid 70’s horse on the flat in the uk before being a promising enough Hurdler. He was very lightly raced before moving to his current stable and its fair to say he may not be going to get back to his former mark any time soon. His last run was a step up on a very poor series of runs and off this mark 25lbs below his best with a 10 lbs claimer on he may stand a decent chance in this low level race. If I’m going to have a bet in these low level races they will be min bets.

½ Point EW 25/1 Generally

Thirsk 4:30

Surly today is finally the day Rex Imperator takes advantage of his plumetting mark. He has been running well lately probably over a trip that doesnt suit him best and the drop back to 6 here is to his advantage along with an even lower mark. If he settles at all here he should win and 7/2 looks value.

The Favourite look dangerous enough but to give Rex 10lbs looks to be pushing it.

2 Points win 7/2 Generally

Curragh 5:00

Caspian Prince has proven that he can perform of this mark and I’ll give him a pass on his first 2 runs this year after a very good Meyden season and it often takes a couple of runs to get back on form afterwards. He was heavily backed for the Epson Dash and didn’t perform but that gives me a bit of hope that he may be going well at home. He was 2^nd in this last year and 25/1 with 5 places looks worth an EW bet.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places 365/Paddy/Sky

3:45 Newcastle

One look at Swynmor’s run at Galway last year of 4 lbs higher than this, will make his current price of 28/1 seem a tad generous. He was poor since in 2 runs but has surly been readied for this after a long break and a pipe opener a few weeks ago. I’d imagine they might think he has a bit in hand off this mark.

2 Points EW 28/1 5 places Sky/Ladbrokes/Paddypower

3:10 Newcastle

Apostle is a horse I expect to come to life soon enough, and I’d like to get in while the price is decent. He was good towards the end of last year and if he can get back to that form he will be competitive of this mark as he has been before. 25/1 looks worth a small gamble that today is the day he starts to improve

1 Point EW 25/1 Generally

Irish Derby 6:30

I’ve changed my mind here in that although I prefer Highland Reel to put it up to the favourite, at the prices Giovanni Canaletto is way too big at 12/1. On a re-watch of the Epson Derby he finished a lot better than I remembered and took too long to get going. That would signify that he will be more suited by the Curragh and 12/1 looks a huge price

1 Point win 12/1 Sporting/Betfair/Hills

Newmarket 4:20

Smoothtalkingrascal came alive last time out in the Epson Dash when a fast finishing 6^th after a slow start. Up to that he had been pretty poor for a long time. He is off his lowest mark ever here and if he repeats that run here with the extra 3 lbs he has been reduced he won’t be far away. I thought the value would be gone after that run but 16/1 in this lesser race is great value. He is up against a possible Group horse in Double up but I’d be wary of any horse at near evens in these handicaps. There isn’t any w/o fav option at the time of writing.

1 Point Win 16/1 Generally.

This race has broken up considerably and I think paddy powers w/o fav market looks wrong. Kingsgate Choice which I was looking at this morning but decided against is 22/1 in the standard market and 20/1 in the w/o which looks value given the favourite here is 4/6. The way the market has broken up it looks decent value for this horse to come back to form. He was poor last time in a decent race but broke slowly. He was decent enough on his reappearance and of this mark could well get involved.

1 Point 20/1 w/o FAV Paddy Power

4:45 Chepstow

An old favourite of mine who probably owes me a win has really drooped to a nice mark in this poor enough race. Secret Witness ran a silly race last time out when drifting across the track to rule out any chance. I saw a bit of hope in his first run this year to think that he could win off  this type of mark if things went his way and there is a decent possibility of that here. I’ll take the 12/1 on offer. In addition he also has a decent claimer on today.

1 Point win 12/1 Generally

7:25 Kilbeggan

This looks a decent Monday race and Moon Dice has been given a chance here by a step up in trip and the addition of a 7lbs claimer on. He ran well up to a point last time out but is probably too slow at this stage for 2 miles on good ground so the extra ½ mile here should help. 25/1 looks enticing and well know our fate before the race as he’ll surly have a few quid on him if he is going to run better here.

1 Point EW 25/1 Generally