Norville is a horse I’ve been following for a few runs now at these big Curragh Sprint’s and I think it is only a matter of time for him to win on this year.  I’ll be backing him each time until he does hopefully at big prices. He is down to a very low mark now of 70 and has a good 5lbs claimer on today. It remains to be seen if he can produce first time out but if he if fit he should be involved, given his other runs in these last year when he possibly didn’t get a lot of luck in running a few times. 33/1 is bigger than I expected and worth of a decent bet.

2 Points EW 33/1 Ladbrokes/Coral

2:40 Ayr

I think there is a pretty big mistake in the prices here regarding Cotton Mill. I don’t think there is much between a lot of these behind the fav but he is here on probably the best terms only 1 lb. outside the handicap and I don’t really fancy the 2 that are on their proper mark, Court Minstrel or Flaxen Flare. Given that he clearly didn’t stay last time out at the festival, most of his other runs have been more or less to this mark this year. Anything resembling his second in the Betfair Hurdle behind My Tent or Yours would be good enough to at least place here, and I think 20/1 is far too big. A slight ease in the ground here will probably suit him. I can’t resist going with my favourite horse even if he stands seemingly little chance at the weights. Barizan can be hard to peg back if on form especially with only 10:04 on his back and the 50/1 with Paddy Power is still worth a min risk just in case.

2 Points EW Cotton Mill  20/1 Various

½ Point EW Barizan 50/1 Paddy Power

3:50 Ayr Scottish Grand National

Roberto Goldback looks to have been given a great chance here the way the weights have worked out. He has been running well enough this year, and really caught the eye last time out at the festival staying on for 3^rd in the Kim Muir. Amazingly he is down another 2lbs for that run and I think nowadays he looks a dour stayer and 20/1 with 5 places looks a very decent bet . He should be suited by the decent enough ground, and with more than half the field out of the weights he looks a bargain at that price. I’m going with a gut feeling selection in Lie Forrit who has been steadily climbing the handicap in hurdles this year and won of a mark of 140 in his latest race last month. His 3^rd in the Fixed Brush Hurdle is particularly strong form, and I just think if he can jump well at all here, he could get involved of his mark, even if he is 5lbs out of the handicap.

1 Point EW 20/1 Roberto Goldback 5places Betfred/Sky

1 Point EW 25/1 Lie Forrit 5 places Betright

3:30 Newbury

I’m not happy to be back looking at these big field flat handicaps, but I’ll have to get back into it sooner rather than later. Magic City could well get involved here as he is back to within 2lbs of his easy success at Goodwood, and looks too big a price at 33/1. I don’t think he will be too inconvenienced by the step up in trip and if he is ready to go that looks value. Ill be keeping stakes low on the flat for a while.

½ Point win 33/1 Various

Ayr 3:50

Solix is an old favourite of mine and I think he has a great chance here tomorrow.  Forgetting his poorish run at the Cheltenham festival he had been showing up well enough prior to that and I think he has been looking for this trip on decent ground.  He is of a mark here of 124 and looking at this race he will probably race prominently and could well be very difficult to pass with his light weight over this trip. 7/1 in this race looks great value

2 Points win 7/1 Paddy Power

Aintree 2:50

I think there is too much of a difference in price here between At Fishers Cross and Zarkandar here. Zarkandar was probably asked to do too much in the World Hurdle and really finished his race well just  2 lengths behind the fav here. He could hardly have a better record here and in truth probably should be favourite on his Aintree Hurdle form alone, along with his now proven staying ability. 4/1 looks too big.

2 Points win 4/1 BetVictor/Coral

Aintree 3:25

I’m tempted by a couple of outside chances here that would need a return to form, but these things happen regularly at Aintree so it may be worth a small investment . Both Vino Greigo and Golden Chieftain have proven in some of their runs to be well capable of winning this of their current marks and have both suddenly improved in the past before. As they are both available at 33/1 or better it’s worth the risk as any return to form by either will put them right in the firing line here.

1 Point win Vino Griego Betfair 44

1 Point win Golden Chieftain Betfair 55

Grand National

I already have Burton Port selected at 50/1 EW Ante post and I wouldn’t swap that bet for anything now.  I’ve looked for a big price angle a number of times in this race and I’m beginning to get the feeling that class may well out here and there is a huge amount of the field that can’t win. It’s a matter of selecting the best value of the class horses as a starting point and at the current price I can’t but be interested in Tidal Bay. It’s not just his class performance in Grade 1 Chases this year but his 3^rd on unsuitable ground in the Welsh National that really catches the eye, amazingly 2lbs higher than today. If anything he has been getting better as his mark has dropped and I can’t ignore that at 22/1.

I had Walkon in mind for this all year and although he has a load of negatives in terms of trip I’m going to assume that his trainer knows him better than the rest of us and that put with his top class performance last year over these fences just failing to concede a stone to Triolo D’Alene, has to put him in with a chance here if he can be kept together for the first circuit. 50/1 seems a huge price

I have to go with a couple of min bet at huge prices and the only ones I can see with a small chance a huge prices are Our Father who to my eye looks to be suited by this race. He has run well this year in the Hennessy and ran well at Cheltenham but is still a bit unexposed and could well be better than his mark. I’ll have a small dart at 120 on Betfair. I also think Hunt Ball could be suited by the race and his staying on performance in 4^th in the Ryanair was a step back to good form for him and that along with his good 3^rd in the Grade 1 Bowl here might give him a tiny squeak at a huge looking 80/1

1 Point win Tidal Bay 22/1 Stan/888/Sporting

1 Point EW Walkon 50/1 5 Places Bet365 (place stake back before 12)

½  Point win Our Father 120 Betfair

½ Point win Hunt Ball 80/1 Various

Advised Already https://longshotvalue.com/grand-national-ante-post/

1 Point EW 50/1 Burton Port RaceBets

Aintree 5:10

Kashmir Peak caught my eye from a canny trainer who may have targeted a race here. His beating of Sametegal and Vasco Du Ronceray about 16 months ago read well in the context of his mark of 133 and he looks worth a shot at 28 on Betfair . He is fit from running on the flat.

1 Point win Betfair 28

Aintree 4:50

I’m going to go with 2 horses that ran well at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle without getting any luck. Cash And Go got badly hampered rounding the turn and had little chance after that but ran on well enough.  I think his current mark 135 give him a decent chance and the fact that we was well backed a couple of times this year makes me think he could be working well and I think he will suit Paul Carberry well. Alaivan is another horse that has been backed a few times this year but also ran well in the county making a mistake at the last. He certainly is capable of getting involved of a mark of 132 with a decent 5lbs claimer on.

1 Point win Cash And Go 18/1 Stan James/Coral

1 Point win Alaivan 16/1 365/sky/coral

Aintree 3:05

To be honest I never thought that Rathlin would be good enough to win a grade 1, but he will never get a better chance than this race. He will be well suited to the course and ground and could well get sparked to life here. His pounding of Hidden Cyclone on good ground last summer reads well now and 16/1 looks value. He also ran reasonable in the Ryanair and If he can improve for that he wont be far away

1 Point win 16/1 Coral

3:40 Aintree

Looking at last year’s race I think I can be pretty sure than Dunowen Point will be competitive here of 8lbs lower . His runs this year on soft ground can be safely ignored as he certain to be prepared with today in mind. Given that the race has turned out particularly well with the winner following up in the Hennessey he may only need to reproduce that run to win here. His front running style should suit this race and also with only 10:01 on his back he may well be harder to catch this year. 16/1 looks decent value. I also noticed the Giorgio Quercus was in the process of running a big race until he was brought down at the 3^rd last. He is 2 lbs. lower this year and has a good 6^th in the Byrne Group Place behind him this year. 22/1 looks a bit of value about him.

1 Point win 16/1 Dunowen Point

1 Point win 22/1 Giorgio Quercus

The Bet on Rock on Ruby in the w/o market just about had us in profit for day 1. There was a couple of poor selections truth be told, but we got out with our clothes still on Just..

2:30 Aintree

It probably isn’t much of a surprise that I’m going for Menorah here at the current prices. He ran just as poor a race at the festival last year as this and still came out here and ran the race of his life to just fail behind First Lieutenant. The market looks all wrong to me , given that he didn’t run at the festival at all this year First Lieutenant looks the most likely winner and in fact he is probably value as well at 10/3 as I’m doubtful the top 2 in the market will run up to their best. Menorah is 12/1 with Ladbroke’s and that’s just too big to ignore.

1 Point win Menorah 12/1 Ladbrokes

4:15 Aintree

Astracad was my selection for the Grand Annual at Cheltenham and he simple couldn’t jump at all around there, I’m hoping that this will be more up his street and  he has some decent form around here., including a very good 2^nd in the Old Roan chase last year of 4lbs higher. He is a standout 18/1 with William Hill and that looks a few points too big. I’m also going with a gut feeling bet on Anquetta at a huge price. He is down to his last winning mark and came to life a few times towards the end of last season. He also ran a good race at Cheltenham when making a mistake 2 out when in contention.

1 Point win Astracad  18/1 William Hill

1 Point EW Anquetta 33/1 Generally

5:25 Aintree

Edgardo Sol ran a decent race for me at a huge price in Cheltenham and given that he was outpaced at the critical stage there and finished out his race well, I think he will improve for the step up in trip here.  This race is nothing like as good at the Coral Cup and he looks EW value at 33/1 with Betbright.

1 Point EW 33/1 Betbright.

3:05 Aintree

Rock on Ruby was a disappointment in the Arkle buthe is far too big here in the w/o fav market. 10/3 without The New One looks a superb price as I just can’t see that Diakali is a shorter price than him even though he has been very good this year. I think Rock on Ruby doesn’t need to be near his best to grab second here, and for me it is significant that he is running here at all. He has had a very light season and that usually helps in Aintree

2 Points w/o fav 100/30 Paddy Power/VC/Coral

Stratford 4:15

Court By Surprise is dropping down is class here and I’m having trouble finding any viable alternative bar the favourite who has to cope with a big rise in handicap mark. He will need to get over a poor enough run last time when he appeared not to stay after traveling well, but this is a few furlongs shorter and he has been given a decent chance by the handicapper here.  I missed the 6/1 last night but 11/2 is still plenty of value and he could well have a bit much for these.

1 Point win 11/2 Various

Meyden 1:45

I’m very late on the Saddlers Rock bandwagon which is no harm as he has been a talking horse a long time without anything falling right for him but he looks a decent price for his today. On his day he is well capable of winning a race like this and the 25/1 with Hills looks a decent price. The favourite has the best form in the race but is very short. I’m going to be sticking with min bets on the flat this year for a while.

½ Point win 25/1 William Hill 22/1 elsewhere

Meyden 3:03

Sole Power has done me a few turns in his time and again here he looks a bit underestimated. Although Shea Shea has the beating of him here, he is far too short and the price difference is way too big to ignore given how little there has been between them. He will need luck in running but certainly has a better than 7/1 chance of timing it right. It isn’t a very deep race really I have him more of a 4/1 shot.

1 Point win 15/2 BetVictor 7/1 Generally

Doncaster 3:15

It is somewhat depressing having to look through these races after the excitement of Cheltenham but the NH will be over shortly and I’ll have to get back on the flat handicap train for the Saturday Fix anyway. I had some difficulty finding anything well handicapped here but one that I felt stood out a bit is Born to Surprise. He has a great course record with 2 wins and a decent run out of 3 runs here albeit over 7 Furlongs. He does look like he needs the step up in trip looking at some of his races and in certainly well handicapped on his best form which includes a win with 4 pounds higher. He had a pipe opener on the All Weather lately and ran on well when not really in the race. I’d be hopeful that the trainer has prepared him for this as he doesn’t have many turf runners and the 25/1 with 5 places with BET365 looks the best option here.

½ Point EW 25/1 5 Places Bet365 28/1 4 Places elsewhere.

Meyden 5:17

I hope Magician win this well and goes on to be a superstar this season, but one of my old favourites Meandre in running here at a big price and has been in decent form this year. It is sort of difficult to see him winning here but he has a very good place record and I think he is overpriced to place at 7/1 with Paddy Power and 9/1 on Betfair for small money. On Official handicap mark he is one of the highest rated in the field.

1 Point place Betfair 8/1 

Pepite Rose ran away with this race after travelling well throughout. She seems to put in one spectacular performance like this every year.

2:30 Newbury

Pepite Rose has an excellent record at Newbury with 2 wins and a fall out of 3 runs here. She is better on the prevailing decent ground and should improve on her last 2 runs on soft ground. She is capable of winning this relatively poor enough race of this mark and having been given a month and a half off after her poor performance at Sandown on unsuitable heavy ground, she should be ready for this. She is still only 7 and I get the feeling that 10/1 is going to look great value later, given the couple of non-runners.

1 Point win 10/1 Stan James/Sporting Bet

3:30 Newbury

Ballypatrick has been running well this year and his 3rd in the Eider is great form albeit over a longer trip on soft ground. He has plenty of decent form on good ground as well and at the current prices he looks the best value. He is down near the bottom of the weights here with a very good claimer on and is proven on this mark. This is a bit of a gut feeling selection but he looks sure to give us a decent run for our money at 10/1.

1 Point win 10/1 Sporting Bet