Big Winner for us yesterday with Hazelrig winning advised at 28/1 to end a longer than usual barren run.

Ayr Gold Cup

The first time I looked at this I fancied Hoof IT after his run last time and I was surprised he wasn’t favourite here.  He has been gradually improving this year to a very good performance last time out in the Haydock Sprint Cup when he finished 3^rd. That run rates him at over 110 in my book and with some more improvement to come he could well be too good for these of 107. He won the Stewards Cup with plenty in hand of 111 a couple of years ago and is still only 6 so cold well get back to that form. He looks to be drawn ok and has gone well on softer ground before although the sun tomorrow won’t be a hindrance. The 16/1 in a few places with 5 places paying looks great value

1 Point EW 16/1 5 Places 365/powers/boyles etc

Newmarket 4:15

Fratellino has done me a few favours in the past and looks sure to be striking soon of this mark. The 6 furlongs on decent ground here should be ideal. I’ve seen a bit of hope lately of higher marks and this looks a very weak race in comparison to some of the races he has been in. 20/1 Looks value

1 Point win 20/1 Generally

Ayr Silver Sup

Thunderball looks to be getting back to form in a big way lately with good runs last time out behind Pearl Ice and a very good run from the wrong side in the Great St Wilfred. He could well be on the wrong side here again drawn in 1 but I’ll go for 1 on each side and the 25/1 looks decent value for a horse proven on this mark and with an exceptional soft ground record. 4 of his 5 wins have come on soft ground.

1 Point EW 25/1 5 places Bet365

Ayr 5:00

Tariq Too is a proven soft ground horse who hasn’t raced much this year more than likely because of the ground. This looks a weak enough race and if he can get back to form at all on the softer surface here hell be in with a great shout at a decent looking 12/1 with paddy power.

1 Point win 12/1 Paddy Power

3:30 Newbury          

I’m not sure the 5lbs penalty and softer ground here is enough to make Kingsgate Native a 12/1 shot for this Group 3 race. He has been in good form most of this year and his last run was on softer ground when an excellent 5h in the Nunthorpe. That form is a good bit better than most of this field and given his good performance in this last year 12/1 looks value.

1 Point win 12/1 various

Ayr 2:20

Hazelrigg has struck me as coming back to form in his last couple of runs. He has very decent form on softer ground and could well have a decent draw here. He also has decent form at the course. If the connections have any sense today may well be the target at 28/1 looks value.

1 Point EW 28/1 VC BET         

Leop 2:45

Norville is one of been watching in his last few runs and he loks to be getting back to form a bit after an eye-catching run last time in a better race than this. He is of a great mark on his old form and the current odds of 34 7.4 on Betfair looks value

1 Point win 1 Point Place betfair

Portland Handicap Doncaster 2:40

I had been looking at Secret Witness for this at a big price since his good run at Newmarket a few weeks ago. To me he clearly hasn’t been trying too hard in his last 2 runs. Yesterday he broke well and over too long a trip faded in the finish but was handled somewhat tenderly as far as I could see. He has done this before come out and ran well 1 day later and judging by that run yesterday I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was better today over a trip more to his liking. He was 3^rd in this last year of 6 lbs higher. 33/1 with 5 places looks good value and I really can see him placed here. I’ll be sticking up another high priced one or 2 in this nearer the off when hopefully some big prices are available on Betfair

1 Point EW 33/1 Paddy Power Bet365 5 places

Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes 3:50

I think that Galileo Rock looks the value here now. His form with Trading Leather looks to have him near the top drawer or 3yo’s and he has more proven consistent form than anything else in the race. I’d be happy with the 7.8 Available on Betfair now and it look worthy of a 2 pt bet

2 Points win 7.8 Betfair

Ascot 1:55

Excellent Guest is back down to the same mark he won of here earlier this year if the 3lbs claimer is taken into the equation and his Ascot record dictates that he isn’t anywhere near a 25/1 shot here, in what looks a weaker than usual race for the type. I’m also going with a small win bet on Monsieur Chevalier who also has a decent course record and hinted at a revival 2 runs ago.

1 Point EW Excellent Guest 25/1 Lads 365

½ Point win Monsieur Chevalier 25/1 PP

Haydock 2:05

There are a few here at the higher end of the betting that I could fancy. Confessional is bound to come back to form at some stage but I thought he would be a higher price than 12/1. Prohibit did come back to form somewhat last time out in a race that has worked out well, and in this race where a fair amount of the runners are off form or have gone up too much in the weights he appeals of a mark of 99 here. 12/1 looks value

1 Point win 12/1 various

Haydock 3:15

I’m going with a gut feeling selection in here Wyborne for the Ellison yard. He is well on the bottom of the weights here and has looked as if he may be ready to improve a few times this season.  He has some French form on softer ground and the very light weight will only help n what could be a bit of a slog around here. 33/1 looks great EW value.

1 Point ew 33/1 Generally

Curragh 4:45

I usually like English raiders in these big Irish handicaps, as the uk races are generally of a better standard. I’m going with 2 decent regulars in these types of races across the water. Global Village looks a particularly big price here, although he wasn’t at his best last time out in Galway he had been of the course for a while and should improve for that run. I’m also going with Anderigo who is proven of this mark and looks to have been getting back to form gradually in his last few races.

1 Point win Global Village 20/1 Generally

1 Point win Anderigo 25/1 Generally      

Bet 5 Beverly 2:30

Although the fav looks a tough one to beat here in wouldn’t be convinced that 5 furlongs is his best trip, and he’ll need a lot of luck in running. Masamah ran a great race in this last year and although he doesn’t have the ideal draw, he is very likely to get away ahead here and may be difficult to catch. He is in good form at the moment and the 9/1 on Stanjames and Betfair looks Value.

2 Points win 9/1 Betfair Stanjames

Bet 6 Chester 2:20

Captain Dunne hit me straight away on looking at this race. Although he hasn’t been in form lately he has been tumbling in the weights as a result and still has shown a bit of speed on occasion this year. He has an exception record at chester and with his decent low draw he may not get a better chance to get his head in form this year. The race has vut up a bit and I think the 11/1 currently available with Bet365 is value.

1 Point win 11/1 Bet365

Bet 7 Chester 2:55

Regal Parade came back to for last time with a very good 4^th in the Great St Wilfred at Ripon, and I thought he would be a shorter price here. He has won over c&d before and should have a decent shot of his current mark. 14/1 looks a few points too big

1 Point win 14/1 Generally

Bet 8 Chester 3:30

Guarentee has a huge turnaround in the weights here with the favourite from their run at york, and is a lot better drawn which can effect even long races here. He is still a young horse and may be able to improve of this mark. He strikes me as a great EW bet although im not that pushed abut 8/1 shots EW really.

1 Point win 8/1 Generally

Bet 9 Sandown 2:05

Edge Closer, won this with loads in hand last year and has been steadily improving this year without troubling the judge. He has come back down to that mark looks drawn ok along with the fact that he has a 5lbs claimer on today just points to possible improvement today. I have come to him more or less by process of elimination as I don’t fancy anything else here, and 14/1 looks a bit of value.

1 Point win 14/1 Sporting bet 32red and Betfair

Bet 10 Sandown 3:50

This looks a difficult race but Asatir could have the right profile to step up here at a big price. He ran well here over a shorter trip in the Coral Challenge, and although he was very poor at Goodwood next time out that can happen there. That last run here gave the impression that he would improve for a step up in trip and he looks a bit of value at 20/1.

1 Point win 24 Betfair

I’m in need of a new approach, as I’m getting a bit tired of trying to select in the toughest races imaginable (profitable as its been in the long-run the downswings are huge), i.e. sprint handicaps etc.

I’m going to start of another 1 of these 100 bet treads, but there will be a different focus. there will be less selections that usual, almost no EW bets and i wont be only picking handicaps and 25-40/1 shots.. Follow at you peril.

Bet 1

Ebor York 3:50

I’m going with a previous selection of mine who has run well in this in the past in Saptapadi. Hopefully today has been the plan all year, and I don’t think the soft ground will be much of a disadvantage to him. He has had a few eye-catching runs this year without anything going his way so far. He is worth a small bet at 32 on Betfair

1 Point win 32 Betfair

Bet 2

Newmarket 3:20

Suegioo is more or less proven of this mark and is still a lightly raced horse that could well improve here. He seems a big price given his decent run last time out, and looks to me to have as good a chance as some of the market leaders here. 19.5 on Betfair is a good few points larger than I expected.

1 Point win Betfair 19.5

Bet 3 Goodwood 2:55

Monsieur Chevalier is an old favourite of mine that ran a huge race last time out in a Group 2 over course and distance and just seems to be getting back to form. Although he isn’t drawn great here he worth a small risk at a decent price, as he wont mind the softer ground.

½ Point win Betfair 30

Bet 4 Newmarket 3:55

Mince has everything in her favour here, including softer ground and looks to be getting back to form after her last run on unsuitable ground. I actually make her favourite to win this and 5/1 looks a huge price, given her opposition here.

2 Points win 6.4 Betfair

York 1:55

This season hasn’t gone as well as could have been expected for Angels will Fall, but I thought I saw signs of hope 2 runs ago behind Artistic Jewel at Haydock. On her day she is better than her 98 rating here and has had a decent break since tacking the Kings Stand where understandable she was out of her dept. She is a decent looking 27 on Betfair for tis tomorrow and that looks worth a gamble that she can return to form.

1 Point win 27 Betfair

Face the problem didn’t run well as I’d hoped last time over 6 furlongs, but back here off what looks a good mark over his favourite trip, he could well get back to form. He was a good 6th at Ascot in a similar race of 1lb higher and he will surly hit soon enough with one of these races. The 20/1 Available with Racebets and Paddy Power looks worth a bet.

1 Point win 20/1 racebets/PP

3:30 Ripon

Confessional has really done nothing right this year, but as a result he has come down in the handicap to his lowest mark in a long time. He has been given a decent break after a poor run at Newcastle, which had come after a few decent enough runs in good races. Although he is generally a 5 furlong horse he has some very decent runs over 6 and should be drawn ok here in 12. Im hoping he will get back to form here at a huge price, as he has the capability on his best form of this mark.

1 Point EW 33/1 Various

Secret Witness just failed for us last week at a very big price and he really looks to be getting back to form. He has an excellent draw and is still capable enough of his revised mark here. I didn’t think he would be such a decent price after last week and is easily worth a small bet at the 20 available on Betfair

1 Point win 20 Betfair.

3:50 Newbury

Common Touch got back to very decent form with a good 7^th at Royal Ascot in a far tougher  race than this, and his last run can be discounted as he was left at the start. He looks to be back on the upgrade and this looks decent opportunity of what is an excellent mark considering he is 4lbs lower than his Ascot run. 14/1 looks a very decent price and well worth a bet.

2 Points win 14/1 Generally

2:50 Ripon

Bajan Tryst ran an excellent race in the Scottish Sprint Cup on his return this year and although he was poor last time, he has been given a break since, and can certainly perform of this mark especially with a 7lbs claimer on here for the first time. He has course form and can’t be the 33/1 shot he is here.

1 Point EW 33/1 Generally