Ascot 2:50

I was all over Suzi’s Connoisseur last week until his price got too short and I couldn’t advise him at the odds for a competitive handicap. He had on the face of it a bit of a shocker but on another watch he got pretty severely boxed in and bullied around with 2 furlongs to go and faded after that. He likes softer ground so it won’t matter what the ground get like tomorrow. 16/1 is just too enticing, and coming out again 7 days later strikes me of a retrieval mission. He has simply not won enough In his carreer so far but of this mark in these conditions around here, if he can get back to gform after last week 16/1 is going to look big.

I also have to go with a horse I have been banging on about this year in Hawkeyethenoo. He was a great 3^rd for us at 40/1 around here in the Victoria Cup which was a stronger race than this and really hasn’t had an ideal race since then. I thought he showed up well at the Shergar Cup meeting with a decent tenderly ridden 4^th over far too short. It would be better for him if the ground didn’t get any worse. 16/1 altough isn’t what ia may have hoped for is till value and ill have egg on my face if he doesn’t show up soon enough.

Under normal circumstances id be going EW with these (if I had only 1 pick in the race) but with 2 in  its probably better in the long run to stick 2 pt win bets on both.

2 Pts win Suzi’s Connoisseur BetVictor & William Hill & Betfair Exchange

2 Pts win Hawkeyethenoo 365/pp/coral and more

Heartbreak is the only word for Suzi’s there 2nd.. Dragged across track.. 

Haydock 3:45

I’ve been looking at this race all week and as much as the 3yo’s are all top of the betting I think this could be an overreaction having a closer look at all their races. Only Mattmu has really performed at this level and in that race he didn’t really look to be staying much further and had the advantage of being on the right side behind the pace. Given they all look under-priced I’m going to go with Pearl Secret who despite being far too fresh before the race last time finished well from way to far back. If he can reproduce his finish in the Kings Stand when he really ripped up the last furlong from the wrong side to finish a really strong 4^th this race could suit him. He was 5^th in this last at a big price when perhaps it was on ground to fast. 25/1 with 4 places is far too big for this horse that in the past has needed a run after a break to be seen at his best.

2 Points EW 25/1 4 Places Sky/Hills 22/1 4 places with 365

Looks like i fell into the trap of ignoring the new talent here again. Pearl was nowhere near his best but the 3yo’s dominated.

Ascot 5:40

I’m always ready to forgive a sprinter a poor run as in these races anything going wrong ruins a chance. Fairway to Heaven has been disappointing for a while but on his second to last run he was just denied with a great run at Goodwood and a reproduction of that after the break he has had since his last run would give him a shot here at a big price. He is certainly capable of this mark.

1 Point win 16/1 vc/pp/coral and more

He was well backed and came there with a chance but not good enough on the day

Haydock 3:10

I’m going right down to the bottom of the betting here in the hope of a return to form for B Fifty Two . I think he ran well enough in a high class Ascot sprint on his last run given that he raced in the centre on his own somewhat. He ran too freely next time out at Goodwood but is back to below his last winning mark and has some decent form on softer ground. I think that Ascot run of 5lbs higher than today would put him in with a chance in this much weaker race and he worth a shot at 28/1.

1 Point win 28/1 365/VC 25/1 Elsewhere

I dont know what to say here, 2nd by a fast diminishing Short Head.. 2 Fairly Sick Results there

Were down to +280 points this year on advised prices and +160 Betfair SP less Commission . Still shaping up to be the best year ever and running at a rather silly 60% ROI.

I don’t normally tip much at poor mid week racing but there is a decent race tomorrow at Epson

Epson 3:05

A decent race for a Monday and one that I’ve had my eye on for a while is out here at what looks the wrong price. Boom the Groom was a very good 3^rd  here in the Dash and followed that up with a good 5^th at Mussleburgh. He was ridden the wrong way completely at Ascot last time out and in this smaller field he will find it easier to get the gaps. He is also 2lbs lower and I’m pretty sure he will start this race at much shorter than 8/1 available. It’s a weak looking race and hopefully an old cliff horse of mine Elusivity doesn’t scupper our bet as he is very good around here but not value.

2 Points win 8/1 Paddy Power & Ladbrokes

He was backed into 6/1, but it was a frustrating watch as he was in a pocket for most of the last 2 furlongs and got out too late. I don’t think he would have beaten the winner today anyway .

Curragh 4:50

Vastonea is a horse who saves his big runs for the big day, with 2 wins in the Topaz mile at Galway and a very good 2^nd here last year. He has been fairly poor since but now appears here of his lowest mark ever. He caught the eye a bit last time at Galway when he had to come too wide in the straight. He had another decent looking run this year in a similar race over c&d when he was both too wide and too far back but finished well. He is 9 lbs lower here. I’d be happy with anything at 20/1 or above, and he is available at 20/1 with 5 places on Betfair sportsbook or 20/1 4 places in VC/PP/888/hills. There is also 1 25/1 with 4 places in Coral and that the one I’ll be going for. In addition I’m going for Chopin who has been dropped to a well workable mark following a poor enough year after looking a very decent horse last year, including a close 4^th in the Group 1 Lockinge. 33/1 with 5 places is just too big for this horse as if he can return to form here he will be right there. I saw just enough of hope at Galway last time to be interested at a big price.

1 Point EW Vastonea 25/1 Coral 20/1 elsewhere

1 Point EW Chopin 33/1 5 Places Betfair Sportsbook and 4 places Betvictor.

The less said about those selections the better they actually finished last and second last. No money for either beforehand told the story.

If anyone didn’t get their selections through email. Give me a shout back here and they can be texted or emailed ..

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Aidan

Goodwood 2:35

I was waiting for prices for this race for the last few days for a range of prices on Suzis Connoisseur as there had been a bit of 12/1 and I hoped for at least that which would have been a decent mistake, but unfortunately he is best 9/1 and that doesn’t look value in this race. I’m drawn towards Jack Revenge who has a decent record with cut in the ground and looked at Galway to be on the way back to decent form after being backed a couple of times and running well. 33/1 with Coral looks big. He has never had the rub of the green in a big race having travelled well a number of times and just not getting the gaps when needed. This soft ground 7 furlongs should suit him and 33/1 is certainly value.

1 Point win 33/1 Coral/VC

Jacks Revenge , ran ok after being way to far back and drawn out side, but he seemed to finish well and ill be keeping him in mind for a soft ground 8 Furlong handicap soon enough hopefully at a big price

Newmarket 6:10

Addictive Dream has showed up well enough In 2 decent races over 5 furlongs previous to his last poor run at York over 6. He has had a break, switched trainers and has an interesting jockey booking for tomorrow along with the dis-guarded headgear. This trainer is on a very good strike rate the last 12 months mostly with sprinters and I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a few quid for him tomorrow at a big looking 25/1 in a few places. The fact that he is back over 5 furlongs here is a decent positive along with a very decent 5lbs drop in mark. Hopefully it doesn’t rain too much tomorrow.

1 Point win 25/1 VC/Lads/Coral/Betfair

Addictive Dream was backed in 8/1 from the advised 25/1. Even with the 20%  rule 4, we were in a good position, but he ran poorly and i think we’ll be leaving him alone for a while.

Newmarket 3:25

Naadir looks like a sprinter really going places when he won with loads in hand in a better race than this at the start of the year. He has been given a break after 2 poor runs since that win and if that can re-kindle some of his best form this race is there for  the taking. Lucky Kristale will be a big danger but at the prices I’d prefer to be with the selection. He could push on from here and take in bigger races towards then end of the season if he gets back to form here. 10/1 is a very decent value despite him having to give weight away to the whole field.

1 Point win 10/1 Ladbrokes/Betfred

Naadir Ran a great race to be 2nd after being backed into 11/2 at the off. The winner got first run on him and he finished like a train. I think there could be a big sprint in him and hell be on my radar (probably everyone else’s as well unfortunately)

Newmarket 2:50

Proposed has run well in his last 2 runs, looking like he would like a step up in trip. He will get all the allowance’s here as a 3yo and has an additional 3 lbs claimer on today. I think his current form puts him right in the picture here at what looks a very decent price of 12 to 14/1. Over this trip that weight advantage should tell and he looks a grinder so far so I’m not overly worried about a 3yo facing older horses. I’d be happy with 12/1 either but 14/1 is available with sporting bet

Proposed was backed into a solid 10/1 but ran much poorer than expected.

Thirsk 3:25

This is my type of minefield with plenty on old favourites here. Rex Imperator is still very well handicapped on old form and he has a bit of form on softer ground which will help here. I’m assuming he will take off soon enough and get back up the handicap with a couple of wins. He looks decent enough last time out in a good race but was probably on the wrong side. 11/1 looks worth a bet. I’m going against the draw bias here with another one at a huge price Majestic Myles caught the eye last time after a long time off, but didn’t quite stay probably for lack of fitness. He has form on soft and if it does turn up soft here the draw bias can switch around to low drawn numbers. We’ll take a little gamble at 33/1 as he’s very well handicapped on old form

1 Point win Rex Imperator 11/1 VC/Hills

1 Point win Majestic Myles 33/1 Generally

I’ve been running this website now for 3 years with very decent overall results (probably some of the best around to be fair), and as can be seen from my Long term results page I’ve been tipping on various other forums now for 5 full years.  The results are there for everyone to see. I believe I have a few unique points in looking for value which is proven over now thousands of selections.

Anyone following these tips will realise than I’m probably tipping the longest average prices of almost anyone around and it’s in this area of the market that the most value is to be found. It does have the negative of possibly very long loosing spells which is to be expected when tipping for example, a 40/1 chance that has in reality a 25/1 chance of winning. I would suggest a 200 point back would be needed for anyone wanting to follow these tips with almost no risk of ruin as the lowest minus value I’ve had in over 5 years has been -150 points, which was actually clawed back in two weeks with a number of big winners.

Obviously things have been going very well this year with nearly 300 points profit from 450 points invested and 315 bets, giving a rather silly ROI this year of 66%. This is obviously not sustainable in the long term and the average ROI over 5 years is now slightly above the 20% mark. In general I have been beating Betfair Starting Price to an average of 20% less than advised (about 15-16%) over that time as well which augurs well for anyone wanting to get on a decent bet on selections, along with the fact that I generally only tip in big races on Saturday or the main festivals like Cheltenham, Ascot, Goodwood York etc. so most tips I will give will have a very liquid market.

My plan for anyone wanting to work of a decent size bank is to plan for a doubling of the 200 point bank within 3 years. Taking any 3 year spell over the last 8-9 years’ of tipping (I have been tipping longshots for longer than it has been done in an organised way) would have easily accomplished this and in fact it more than likely won’t take that long but 3 years and a combined 100% return will beat any other investment that can be made easily at the moment and is a fair target to go for.

I had started up this website a few years ago in the hope that I could land a nice job for Saturdays to perhaps tip on a website, or Newspaper but that looks highly unlikely despite consistent results. So From the 1^st of September I’m going to start a Private service and will be charging about the lowest fee in the market as I’m not in this to make my living, (I’m a partner in a successful IT Company), but in general I’m not a gambler really and don’t back a lot of my selections, so I’m really only looking to benefit somewhat from the amount of time spend analysing races etc. The fee is £10 per month and will be for a 12 month subscription by default as with my average prices taking only 1 month of selection wouldn’t give anyone a decent picture. This PayPal subscription can of course be cancelled at any time if anyone feels the service isn’t for them. Selections will be emailed or texted and there will also be a twitter warning of selections. I may use the fact than it now going to be a private service to add some before race bets on Betfair to suss out value available in long priced horses near the off as the price often extends out to far on many horses in that range.

£10 pounds a month is well within the range of the fun punter as well and given that my average profit over the 5 years is at least 10 points a month profit, anyone sticking with the service will be making an average of €90 per month on a €10 a point selections. There is also the aspect that it is just more fun to have a huge price winner every so often and getting the excitement of a big price runner going well in a big Saturday handicap.

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Newbury 6:10

I’m up too early so having a look around for a bit of value the only decent racing today is in Newbury. I’m drawn to this nursery with something I always like in soft ground a very low weight. November had been progressing nicely until his last run over 6 furlongs when he raced far too freely and didn’t stay. He has caught the eye particularly in a decent Sandown maiden on his second run. His mark of 68 looks a bit generous even if the form of that maiden hasn’t exactly worked out apart from the winner who was 2^nd in a big nursery at York last week of a mark of 79. The selection is carrying almost a stone less than anything else with Cam Hardie’s 3 lbs.’ claim and on soft ground that should be vital. He is also back over 5 furlongs which should suit. The 14/1 on Betifar sportsbook looks far too big and id be happy with anything above 8/1 so that margin is a bit too big to miss.

2 Points win 14/1 Betfair Sportsbook 12/1 elsewhere